Raisin Market Steady as Supply Rebuilds and Prices Consolidate

Raisin prices are broadly stable at the start of April 2026, with Turkish and Indian origins consolidating after earlier volatility linked to frost damage and tighter dried fruit supply. The market is transitioning from a stress phase in dried fruits to a more balanced environment, underpinned by replanting and quality-focused investment on the fig and grape side. Near term, prices look range-bound, with more direction expected once first concrete indications for the 2026/27 grape crop appear.

The dried fruit sector has had a challenging season, particularly for figs, but remains export-oriented and dynamic. Producers are actively managing limited stocks while preparing for new-season supply, and this discipline spills over into how raisins are marketed. Lower-than-expected recent harvests in key Mediterranean origins are driving growers to invest in additional trees and better genetics to secure higher yields and quality in coming seasons. This forward-looking behavior dampens aggressive selling today and supports a floor under current raisin prices.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Raisin prices in EUR show a stable to slightly firm profile across origins and qualities. Turkish sultanas from Malatya are currently indicated at around EUR 2.20–2.65/kg FOB for conventional grades 8–10, with organic type 9 around EUR 3.10/kg FOB. Indian brown and black raisins trade cheaper, around EUR 1.80–1.86/kg FOB New Delhi, while golden raisins are closer to EUR 2.30/kg. Chinese and Chilean product delivered to Northwest Europe is mostly in the low-to-mid EUR 2/kg FCA range, with Turkish RTU raisins into Europe priced higher, just below EUR 2.90/kg FCA.

Origin / Type	Location / Term	Current Price (EUR/kg)	1–3 Week Trend
Turkey sultanas type 8–10, conv.	Malatya, FOB	2.20–2.65	Sideways after March rebound
Turkey sultanas type 9, organic	Malatya, FOB	3.10	Stable
Turkey sultanas RTU no. 9	NL, FCA	2.87	Slightly softer vs mid-March
China sultanas no. 9	NL/DE, FCA	2.18–2.21	Broadly flat
India raisins (brown/black)	New Delhi, FOB	1.80–1.86	Slightly softer vs mid-March
India raisins golden	New Delhi, FOB	2.31	Sideways
Chile flame jumbo	NL, FCA	2.48	Stable

🌍 Supply & Dried Fruit Context

The broader dried fruit complex has been under pressure from smaller-than-expected harvests, especially in figs, which share production regions and infrastructure with raisin grapes. In these origins, farmers are being encouraged to expand tree plantings and adopt improved varieties after this year’s reduced fig crop. Sapling sales are already picking up and R&D efforts target higher productivity and quality for forthcoming seasons. This strategic expansion in perennial crops suggests that medium-term raisin and fig availability should gradually recover, but not flood the market in the immediate term.

In Turkey, previous frost events sharply reduced grape and other fruit output, leaving limited stocks and supporting dried fruit prices into early 2026. Recent industry commentary points to a still-tight but better-organised supply pipeline, with exporters prioritising quality contracts and managing carryover cautiously, which is consistent with the stable Q1 2026 price guidance for sultanas. Indian raisin supply, by contrast, looks more comfortable and price competitive, benefiting from a generally strong domestic horticultural base and a weak local currency that supports exports across several agri-commodities.

📊 Fundamentals & Demand

On the demand side, global consumer spending remains under pressure in some markets, but staple dried fruits such as raisins retain steady off-take into bakery, confectionery and breakfast segments. Buyers in Europe and the Middle East remain sensitive to price, often favouring Indian and Chinese origins for lower-grade or blended applications while maintaining Turkish sultanas for premium specifications. The coexistence of tight Mediterranean supplies and ample South Asian availability is creating a two-tier market, with higher premiums for origin- and quality-sensitive demand.

Compared with some other agricultural commodities, the raisin market in early 2026 is less affected by acute logistics shocks. Freight is still elevated versus pre-pandemic norms, but recent trade press suggests that dried fruit exporters have largely adapted their shipping strategies, and no fresh, raisin-specific bottlenecks have emerged in the last few weeks. In this environment, fundamentals point to a balance between limited but disciplined supply in Turkey and cost-competitive alternatives from India and China, keeping global prices in a consolidation phase.

⛅ Weather & New-Season Outlook

Weather in key raisin regions in the Mediterranean basin has recently been mixed but without widely reported new frost shocks comparable to past seasons. While episodic storms continue to affect parts of Europe, current reports do not indicate a major immediate threat to the upcoming grape flowering period. However, the memory of prior frost damage in Turkey means the market will closely monitor April and May conditions for any signs of stress on vineyards and fig orchards.

In parallel, sustained R&D and replanting in fig and grape orchards should gradually improve resilience and productivity in the medium term. Farmers’ current focus on better varieties and higher quality suggests that, over the next several seasons, the market could see more consistent sizing and sugar levels, which would support a higher share of premium raisins and figs. For the remainder of Q2 2026, though, availability will continue to reflect the smaller past crops rather than the future plantings now underway.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Importers in Europe: Use current stability in Turkish sultana prices around EUR 2.20–2.65/kg FOB to secure partial cover for Q2–Q3 needs, but keep some volume open given the still-uncertain 2026/27 crop weather.
• Blenders and value brands: Consider increasing exposure to Indian and Chinese origins for cost-sensitive lines, where prices around EUR 1.80–2.20/kg offer attractive spreads versus Turkish product.
• Premium and organic buyers: Organic and RTU Turkish raisins remain tight and firm; forward contracting is advisable, especially where brand recipes require consistent origin and quality.
• Producers & growers: Continued investment in new plantings and varietal improvement, as already seen in figs, will be key to rebuilding supply and maintaining competitiveness against cheaper origins.

📉 3‑Day Price Direction Snapshot

• Turkey (Malatya, sultanas type 8–10, FOB): Stable in EUR, with a slight upward bias if new export interest emerges, but no strong catalysts in the next three days.
• India (New Delhi, brown/black/golden, FOB): Broadly steady; competitive pricing likely maintained as exporters defend share in Europe and the Middle East.
• Northwest Europe (NL/DE, FCA mixed origins): Sideways; modest adjustments may occur based on freight and FX, but underlying raisin values are expected to remain range-bound in the very short term.