Dates Market: Higher Global Supply Meets Slowing EU Demand

Global date supply is expanding sharply on the back of strong North African crops, while EU import demand has cooled markedly in early 2026. The market is well-supplied overall, with only selective firmness for premium varieties and origins.

Global production gains led by Tunisia and Algeria are boosting availability in 2025/26, yet EU imports fell nearly 4% in 2025 and more than 20% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026. This divergence between supply growth and slower European offtake is capping upside in bulk prices, even as Deglet Noor and Medjool maintain robust structural demand. In this environment, origin, quality and sales timing are becoming more important than overall volume growth.

📈 Prices & Market Mood

European spot prices signal a buyer‑friendly but differentiated market. Pitted dates from Pakistan are currently quoted around €1.29/kg EXW Poland, positioning them as a competitive low‑cost option against North African and Middle Eastern origins.

Indicative Iranian FOB offers from mid‑2025 show a wide quality spread: Kabkab dates around €1.11/kg FOB Tehran, Zahedi at €1.53/kg, and premium Mazafati at roughly €3.05/kg. Converted into landed EU costs, Pakistani and standard‑grade Iranian dates form the lower price band, while premium soft varieties and branded Deglet Noor/Medjool lots continue to command notable premiums.

Product	Origin	Market level	Price (EUR/kg)
Pitted dates, bulk	Pakistan	EXW Poland	1.29
Dates, Kabkab, premium	Iran	FOB Tehran	1.11
Dates, Zahedi, premium	Iran	FOB Tehran	1.53
Dates, Mazafati, premium	Iran	FOB Tehran	3.05

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

Global date production in 2025/26 is now estimated at 1.32 million mt, up 9.5% year‑on‑year and slightly above previous expectations of 1.29 million mt. Including carry‑over, total availability reaches about 1.567 million mt, compared with 1.47 million mt last season, confirming a clearly more comfortable supply situation.

Saudi Arabia remains the largest single producer with roughly 290,000 mt (about 22% of global output, +7.4% y/y), followed by Egypt at 190,000 mt (+5.6%). The UAE is stable at 170,000 mt, while Tunisia stands out with a 50% jump to 150,000 mt. Production across the main origins is described as stable to higher, limiting any fundamental support for broad price increases.

On the demand side, however, the EU is showing clear signs of saturation or temporary destocking. Total EU imports declined 3.8% in 2025 to 152,117 mt, with import value down 2% to about €383 million. Tunisia still supplied nearly 40% of EU imports but reduced volumes by almost 10%. Algeria (‑17.8%), Israel (‑7.1%) and Iran (‑2.4%) also shipped less, while Pakistan sharply expanded its presence (+51% to 10,380 mt), confirming its role as a growing low‑cost supplier.

The downtrend intensified in early 2026: in Q1, EU imports dropped to 44,019 mt, down 22.6% y/y, while import value fell by 18.1% to €113.6 million. The smaller fall in value versus volume suggests slightly higher average unit prices, likely reflecting a shift towards better qualities or more Medjool and branded Deglet Noor, even as total volumes contracted.

📊 Fundamentals & Variety Dynamics

Despite higher aggregate supply, demand for Deglet Noor remains strong, and Medjool continues to gain market share in international trade. Acreage expansion across several producing countries has been driven by this sustained interest in higher‑value varieties. This is underpinning premiums for well‑sorted, well‑packed fruit even amid a generally well‑supplied market.

Tunisia’s and Algeria’s larger crops, combined with their dominant role in Deglet Noor exports to Europe, mean that EU buyers have ample origin choices this season. At the same time, Pakistan’s more aggressive export growth and competitive pricing are intensifying competition in the standard‑grade segment, particularly for industrial and private‑label users.

🌦️ Weather & Short‑Term Outlook

Key date‑producing areas in North Africa and the Middle East are currently in the vegetative and early fruit‑set stages. Recent reports from Tunisia and Algeria point to a relatively mild but occasionally wet spring, with some episodes of rain and cooler conditions at higher elevations. For date palms, these conditions are generally not seen as threatening the 2025/26 crop, but continued monitoring is warranted as temperatures rise into summer.

In Saudi Arabia, seasonal climate data indicate warm to very warm conditions in April with limited rainfall in major inland regions, which is broadly consistent with typical date‑growing weather and does not suggest significant production risk at this stage. Overall, no major weather‑driven supply shock is visible in the short term, reinforcing the current picture of comfortable global availability.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Buyers in the EU: With volumes down but availability high at origin, buyers can negotiate aggressively on bulk grades (especially Pakistan and standard Iranian types) while locking in selected premiums for Deglet Noor and Medjool where brand and quality matter.
• Exporters in North Africa: Given softer EU offtake, focus on differentiation (calibre, pitting quality, residue management, branding) rather than volume alone, and explore diversification into non‑EU markets to absorb the larger 2025/26 crop.
• Industrial users: Consider forward coverage in Q2–Q3 for low‑ to mid‑grade dates, as the current mismatch between rising supply and subdued EU demand should keep prices competitively anchored.

📉 3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• EU spot (Poland, Pakistan pitted, EXW): Stable to slightly soft around €1.25–1.30/kg as competition among origins remains strong.
• FOB Iran (standard varieties): Broadly steady in EUR terms for Kabkab and Zahedi, with only limited upside seen near term.
• Premium soft dates & top‑grade Deglet Noor/Medjool: Firm to slightly firmer, supported by quality‑driven demand and only moderate sensitivity to bulk oversupply.