Chinese Sunflower Seed and Kernel Prices Edge Mixed Amid Firm Export Demand

Chinese sunflower prices are holding firm with a slight softening in seeds and modest gains in kernels, as steady export demand offsets comfortable domestic supply.

China’s sunflower complex starts April with narrowly mixed price moves: black striped seeds have eased marginally, while hulled kernels, including organic lots, are edging higher. This comes as global oilseed markets digest news of lower Ukrainian sunflower oil output in 2025/26 and firm Black Sea oilseed values, which underpin export parity for Chinese material. At the same time, early spring weather in northern China looks broadly favourable for planting, supporting a constructive supply outlook. Traders in China therefore face a market that is not overheated but underpinned by external strength, suggesting range-bound prices in the very near term with a mild bullish bias for higher-value kernel products.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices below are indicative and converted to EUR using an approximate rate of 1 USD = 0.93 EUR.

Product (FOB CN, Beijing)	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1-week change
Sunflower seeds, black striped, 98%	≈ 1.34	↓ about 1–2%
Sunflower kernels, hulled confection, 99.95%	≈ 1.07	↑ about 2%
Sunflower kernels, hulled bakery, 99.95%	≈ 1.07	↑ about 1%
Sunflower kernels, hulled confection, organic	≈ 1.15	↑ about 2–3%

Against this, Ukrainian sunflower seeds for export are trading at significantly lower levels, with Black Sea FOB values for seeds and meal in the range of roughly EUR 0.50–0.60/kg, maintaining a wide discount to Chinese origin and keeping external benchmarks in check.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

China’s sunflower seed balance for 2025/26 points to slightly higher production and stable-to-lower imports, indicating a comfortable but not burdensome supply situation. USDA’s latest Beijing oilseed update (published March 28, 2026) projects sunflower seed area and output to increase modestly, with total supply up versus 2024/25 while crush and food use continue to expand.

Globally, fundamentals are shaped by Ukraine and the wider Black Sea region. Fresh industry projections from Ukroilprom indicate Ukrainian sunflower oil output falling around 10% in 2025/26, implying tighter seed availability for export and firming the floor under international prices, despite still-decent ending stocks. Bulgarian market analysis also points to farmers holding back 2025 crop sunflower seed in anticipation of firmer prices, which could restrict nearby seed liquidity into the EU and keep kernel and oil premiums elevated.

☀️ Weather Outlook – China (Key Sunflower Regions)

Sunflower growing areas in northern China (notably Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia) typically move into their planting window from early to mid‑April. Recent agro‑climatic work shows mean growing‑season temperatures in these provinces are now entering the optimal band for spring crop establishment from around April 1 onwards.

Short‑term weather outlooks and traveler observations suggest early April conditions in northern and northeastern China will be cool but seasonally mild, with daytime temperatures mostly from mid‑single digits up towards the low 20s °C, no widespread cold anomalies and generally dry to moderate rainfall. This supports timely planting and does not currently pose a threat to 2026 sunflower yield potential, helping cap weather‑driven risk premiums in Chinese seed prices in the very near term.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Trade Flows

On the export side, Chinese processors continue to compete with Ukrainian and Balkan origins in kernels and in-shell seeds. Recent Ukrainian market analysis notes that, even as farmers there and in Bulgaria hold stock in expectation of better prices, Black Sea exporters remain price‑competitive and are sometimes operating at low margins to maintain European positions. This constrains upside for Chinese FOB offers, particularly in mass‑market confection kernels.

At the same time, Ukraine’s anticipated 10% reduction in sunflower oil output alongside ongoing logistical and geopolitical risks in the Black Sea region mean importers value diversification of supply. For Chinese exporters, this translates into relatively steady overseas demand for high‑spec kernels and niche grades, helping explain the mild price firming in kernels even as in‑shell seed values have eased slightly.

📆 Short-Term Price Outlook (3 Days, CN Focus)

• Sunflower seeds, black striped, FOB Beijing: sideways to slightly softer in EUR terms as domestic supply is comfortable and competition from discounted Black Sea seed persists. Expected move: 0 to −1% over the next three trading days.
• Sunflower kernels, hulled (bakery & confection, FOB Beijing): mildly firm on sustained export interest and relatively tight high‑purity kernel supply. Expected move: stable to +1% over the next three days.
• Organic sunflower kernels, hulled: firm tone with limited availability and price‑insensitive niche demand. Expected move: stable to +1–2% if fresh buying emerges.

📌 Trading Recommendations

• Importers / Buyers: Consider layering in short‑term coverage for kernels (especially bakery grades) at current EUR levels, as downside appears limited by tight global kernel supply and reduced Ukrainian oil output.
• Chinese Processors / Exporters: For in‑shell sunflower seeds, remain flexible and avoid aggressive price hikes; Black Sea competition and adequate domestic supply argue for competitive FOB offers to secure volume.
• Speculative / Trade Houses: Focus on relative spreads: long high‑grade kernels vs. short in‑shell seeds may capture continued strength in value‑added segments while seeds remain capped by external benchmarks.