Dates Market 2025/26: Rising Supply Meets Softer EU Demand

Global date production is rising sharply in 2025/26, led by North Africa, while EU imports are falling and trade flows are shifting toward more price-aggressive origins. Prices remain relatively firm for now, but the combination of comfortable availability and softer European demand points to increasing downside risk in the coming months.

Global availability is set to reach a record level on strong crops in Tunisia and Algeria and acreage expansion in several origins. At the same time, EU imports declined in 2025 and dropped sharply again in early 2026, reflecting weaker consumption, inventory adjustments and a more cautious buying strategy. Premium varieties such as Deglet Noor and Medjool still enjoy robust interest, but competition between exporters is intensifying, particularly in the higher-value segments.

📈 Prices & Market Mood

Despite a clear slowdown in EU buying, date prices have held relatively stable so far. On the European spot market, pitted dates from Pakistan are quoted around USD 1.39/kg EXW Poland, roughly EUR 1.30/kg, underscoring that quality and origin differentiation are still providing price support even as volumes soften.

Export offers for Iranian premium dates also point to a broadly steady but segmented price structure. Recent quotations from Tehran show approximate levels of around EUR 1.11/kg FOB for Kabkab, EUR 1.53/kg for Zahedi and EUR 3.05/kg for Mazafati premium dates, with Mazafati showing a modest firming versus previous indications. This confirms that higher-value and specialty varieties are still able to command a premium, while more standard grades face stronger competitive pressure.

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

Global date production in 2025/26 is estimated at about 1.32 million tonnes, up 9.5% year-on-year and revised higher from earlier projections of 1.29 million tonnes. Including carry-over stocks, total availability is expected to reach roughly 1.567 million tonnes versus 1.47 million tonnes a year earlier, signalling a more comfortable overall supply situation.

Growth is concentrated in key producing countries. Saudi Arabia remains the largest producer with around 290,000 tonnes (+7.4%), followed by Egypt at 190,000 tonnes (+5.6%). The UAE is steady near 170,000 tonnes, while Tunisia stands out with a sharp 50% increase to about 150,000 tonnes. Acreage expansion and improved yields across several origins underpin this broader uptrend and suggest that supply growth will remain a structural feature in the medium term.

On the demand side, the picture is more cautious. The EU, one of the most important import markets, saw total date imports fall 3.8% in 2025 to 152,117 tonnes, with import value down 2% to around USD 414 million. The trend worsened in early 2026: first-quarter imports dropped 22.6% year-on-year to 44,019 tonnes, with values lower by 18.1% to USD 122.65 million, indicating weaker consumption and active stock management by buyers.

📊 Trade Flows & Product Segmentation

North African origins remain central in supplying Europe, but they are facing a more competitive and price-sensitive market. Tunisia kept its position as the dominant EU supplier in 2025 with just under 40% share (about 59,957 tonnes), yet its volumes, like those of Algeria, Israel and Iran, all declined. Algerian shipments to the EU fell 17.8% to 21,952 tonnes, Israel’s by 7.1% to 19,317 tonnes and Iran’s by 2.4% to 15,218 tonnes.

The early 2026 data highlight even steeper corrections: Algerian exports to the EU were down about 65%, Israel’s by 29.5% and Iran’s by 9.6% year-on-year. Tunisia still led with roughly 45% market share but also saw slight volume erosion. In contrast, Pakistan increased its EU shipments by 51% in 2025 to 10,380 tonnes, capturing additional share with more competitive pricing, which aligns with current spot indications in Europe.

Within this shifting trade landscape, demand continues to focus on premium and well-differentiated varieties. Deglet Noor retains a strong global following as a versatile, widely recognized variety, while Medjool dates are consolidating their position in high-value export markets. This variety segmentation allows top-grade products to remain relatively resilient in price, even as standard and lower grades must compete harder on cost.

🌦️ Weather & Short-Term Outlook

Recent reports from key producing regions point to generally favorable growing conditions following the strong 2025/26 harvest, with no major new weather shocks reported in the last few weeks. Combined with the production gains already locked in, this suggests that supply-side risks are currently moderate compared with the more uncertain demand outlook.

Given rising availability and slower EU imports, the market balance is clearly shifting. Supply is expanding, demand in a core destination market is softening and prices are, for the moment, holding relatively steady thanks to product differentiation and still-solid interest in premium origins. If European consumption fails to recover in the coming quarters, increased competition between exporters—especially from North Africa and Pakistan—could start to translate into broader price concessions.

📆 Trading Outlook & Risk Assessment

• For buyers (EU industry and packers): The current environment favors cautious, phased purchasing. With global supply comfortable and EU demand subdued, buyers can resist forward-covering at high levels and focus on quality selection, particularly for Deglet Noor and Medjool, where premiums remain justified.
• For exporters (Tunisia, Algeria, Middle East, Pakistan): Intensifying competition, especially from Pakistan’s expanding exports, argues for sharper pricing, improved grading and stronger branding. North African suppliers in particular may need to defend market share via flexible contract structures and targeted promotions in Europe.
• For growers and upstream investors: Continued acreage expansion against a softer EU demand backdrop raises the risk of oversupply. Investments should prioritize higher-value varieties, improved post-harvest handling and diversification into alternative markets beyond the EU to mitigate price pressure.

📍 3-Day Directional Price View (EUR)

Market	Product	Current Level (approx.)	3-Day Bias
EU spot (Poland)	Pitted dates, Pakistan origin	≈ EUR 1.30/kg EXW	Sideways to slightly softer on weak demand
Export FOB Tehran	Kabkab, premium	≈ EUR 1.11/kg	Stable; competition limiting upside
Export FOB Tehran	Zahedi, premium	≈ EUR 1.53/kg	Stable to marginally softer
Export FOB Tehran	Mazafati, premium	≈ EUR 3.05/kg	Stable; premium demand still supportive