Raisin Prices Hold Firm With Slight Softening in Europe-Linked Origins

Raisin prices across key origins are broadly stable into early April 2026, with only marginal softening in Europe-delivered lots from Chile, China and Afghanistan. Turkish and Indian offers remain flat, signalling a balanced market where logistical risk, rather than crop stress, is the main near-term driver.

Global raisin fundamentals look comfortable as Northern Hemisphere producers head into the post-harvest marketing phase and Southern Hemisphere origins ship the tail end of their 2025/26 crops. No weather shocks have emerged this week in Turkey, India, China’s Xinjiang or Chile to threaten vines or drying conditions. Instead, trade flows are being shaped by freight and finance: Middle East tensions and broader West Asia disruptions are lifting logistics and insurance costs for Indian exporters, even as the Reserve Bank of India extends export credit timelines to support shipments.

📈 Prices & Spreads (all values in EUR)

Indicative FOB/FCA/CIF offers converted to EUR (approx. 1 USD = 0.93 EUR):

Origin (Region)	Type / Grade	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1W Move
India (IN)	Golden, brown, black AA	New Delhi, FOB	~2.15–2.76	Stable
Turkey (TR)	Sultanas 8–10 A, RTU, organic	Malatya, FOB/CIF	~2.04–2.88	Stable
China (CN)	Sultanas std/RTU, no. 9	NL/DE, FCA	~1.99–2.05	↓ ~1–2%
Chile (CL)	Flame jumbo	NL, FCA	~2.21	↓ ~1–2%
Afghanistan (AF)	Feed, brown	NL, FCA	~1.71	↓ ~1–2%

Turkey remains the global benchmark for standard sultanas, with Malatya FOB around EUR 2.05–2.46/kg for conventional grades and CIF-based RTU around EUR 2.23/kg equivalent. India’s golden raisins continue to trade at a modest premium to Chinese standard sultanas, while Afghan feed-quality raisins are discounted versus all food-grade origins.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Turkey (TR)

Turkey, centred on Malatya and the wider Aegean region, remains the key supplier for standard sultanas into Europe and the Middle East. No fresh crop damage reports have emerged in the last three days; current market focus is on shipment execution rather than yield revisions. Fresh Turkish agri headlines this week concentrate on citrus rather than grapes, but they confirm normal export logistics and sustained demand for horticultural exports, indirectly supporting confidence in raisin flow capacity.

India (IN)

India’s raisin supply draw heavily from Maharashtra (notably Sangli and Nashik), regions that are currently in the late grape harvest and drying phase, typically extending from February to April. Production for 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons has shifted more acreage toward raisin-destined grapes in response to sustained domestic and export demand, according to recent deciduous fruit outlooks.

On the demand side, India faces broader export headwinds due to the West Asia conflict, which is raising freight and insurance costs across agricultural shipments. While raisins are not singled out, they share logistics channels with other food products into Gulf and West Asian markets, implying lingering risk of temporary shipment delays, but no demand collapse.

China (CN)

China’s raisin production is concentrated in Xinjiang’s Turpan and surrounding oases, which account for the majority of national output and make China the world’s largest producer of green raisins. Recent coverage from Xinjiang highlights intensive investment in precision agriculture, mechanisation and land conversion for crops such as cotton and horticulture, reinforcing a narrative of structurally improving farm productivity and export capacity. This underpins steady medium-term raisin availability, even as short-term European FCA offers have eased slightly.

Chile (CL) and Afghanistan (AF)

Chile’s flame jumbo raisins, an important premium segment into the EU, are priced marginally below Turkish type 10 sultanas, suggesting adequate supplies and some buyer resistance at earlier highs. South Africa’s noted decline in raisin exports in 2025 has marginally supported Chilean and Turkish market share in Europe, but that information predates this week’s pricing. Afghan raisins, including feed-grade product shipped via the Netherlands, are seeing slightly softer prices; this likely reflects quality segmentation and competition from abundant low- to mid-grade supply in other origins rather than a specific Afghan crop issue.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Check (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR)

• Turkey (TR): Current reports focus on other fruits but indicate ordinary export operations and no extreme weather alerts for western and southeastern Turkey in the last few days. There is no evidence of frost or heavy rain events threatening sultana vineyards this week.
• India (IN): Late-season grape harvest and drying in Maharashtra and adjacent regions continue under seasonally warm, mostly dry conditions. No major weather disruptions have been reported in the past three days, which supports stable quality and throughput into raisin plants.
• China (CN): Xinjiang’s early spring weather is transitioning from cold to mild; current media coverage emphasises field preparation and mechanised sowing, not adverse events, suggesting normal conditions for perennial vines at this stage.
• Chile (CL): As the Southern Hemisphere moves through late summer–early autumn, no last‑minute weather shocks have been flagged this week in key grape areas. Raisin supply for export is largely determined by earlier season conditions and is now in the marketing stage.
• Afghanistan (AF): With the main drying season still several months away, current weather is less critical for immediate raisin supply. The more important structural factor remains processing and export infrastructure, bolstered by new plants inaugurated in 2025, providing capacity to standardise and scale exports.

📆 Short-Term Price Outlook (Next 3 Days)

Key assumptions: no sudden escalation in West Asia logistics, stable FX around current levels, and no abrupt policy changes.

• Turkey (TR): Malatya FOB sultanas (types 8–10, conventional) are expected to remain in a tight range around current EUR-equivalent levels over the next three days, with only minor intra-week adjustments as exporters balance order books and currency moves.
• India (IN): New Delhi FOB golden, brown and black AA raisins should trade sideways in EUR terms, with any INR softness versus USD likely offset by higher freight and insurance costs for West Asia-bound cargoes.
• China (CN): European FCA prices for standard and RTU sultanas from Xinjiang-origin stock are likely to stay slightly offered, but further downside over the next three days appears limited unless buyers step back more aggressively.
• Chile (CL): Flame jumbo FCA NL is expected to remain fractionally below Turkish type 10 benchmarks; no strong catalysts for a quick rebound are visible in the very short term.
• Afghanistan (AF): Feed-grade raisins FCA NL should continue to trade at a discount, with a neutral to slightly softer tone driven more by quality perception than by fundamental shortage or surplus.

📌 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Buyers (food industry/importers): Use the current stable Turkish and Indian offers to extend cover modestly for Q2–Q3 2026, prioritising Malatya and New Delhi origins for core specifications. Consider selectively locking in Chinese and Chilean volumes where small price dips have opened, but avoid overcommitting ahead of any freight repricing linked to West Asia tensions.
• Origin sellers (TR, IN, CN, CL, AF): Maintain offer discipline on higher-quality grades; immediate downside appears limited given balanced fundamentals. For India and Afghanistan, factor in potential logistics premiums when quoting to West Asia and EU destinations, and leverage policy support measures such as extended export credit timelines where applicable.
• Traders: Monitor freight and insurance developments in the Gulf and Red Sea corridors daily, as a sudden easing or tightening could quickly shift delivered EUR price parity between origins. Relative value opportunities currently lie in slightly discounted Chinese and Chilean FCA stock versus Turkish benchmarks.