Pigeon Pea Market: Soft Correction, Firm Import Floor and Limited Downside

Pigeon pea prices in India have eased only marginally as dal mills step back from the market, while strong import costs, MSP procurement and modestly lower 2025–26 output keep a solid floor under values. Upside risk remains tied to faster government buying or tighter Myanmar supply.

Across key Indian centres, pigeon pea is trading in a narrow, slightly softer band as mills digest earlier purchases and weigh domestic values against imported stocks. Government procurement and a sizeable but not excessive pool stock are preventing any sharp sell-off, while import offers from Myanmar and Africa have firmed, indicating tighter availability at origin. With production expected to fall 4–5% year on year, policy makers have extended duty-free import access to ensure supply, but importer reluctance to sell at a loss is curbing downside momentum.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Price action over the last session shows a mild correction rather than a trend reversal. In Chennai, benchmark Myanmar-origin Lemon pigeon pea for April–May shipments slipped by roughly ₹50 to about ₹7,775–₹7,825 per quintal, equivalent to approximately EUR 85.5–86.1 per 100 kg at current exchange assumptions. New-crop 2025 Lemon arhar for forward shipment remains firmer at around ₹8,300 per quintal, or roughly EUR 91.3 per 100 kg, underlining expectations of a tighter balance ahead.

In Delhi, Lemon pigeon pea is holding near ₹8,050 per quintal (around EUR 88.6/100 kg), while Mumbai has seen a modest ₹25 correction to about ₹7,650 per quintal (around EUR 84.2/100 kg) for older-crop lots. African-origin material in Mumbai trades at a clear discount: Sudan-origin near ₹6,900 per quintal (about EUR 75.9/100 kg) and Mozambique-origin Gajri and White types around ₹6,550–₹6,600 per quintal (roughly EUR 72.1–72.6/100 kg), keeping them particularly attractive for price-sensitive dal mills.

📊 Reference Price Snapshot (approximate)

Market / Origin	Product	Price (local)	Price (EUR / 100 kg)
Chennai	Lemon arhar, Myanmar, Apr–May	₹7,775–7,825/qtl	≈ 85.5–86.1
Chennai	Lemon arhar, 2025 crop	₹8,300/qtl	≈ 91.3
Delhi	Lemon arhar	₹8,050/qtl	≈ 88.6
Mumbai	Lemon arhar, old crop	₹7,650/qtl	≈ 84.2
Mumbai	Sudan-origin pigeon pea	₹6,900/qtl	≈ 75.9
Mumbai	Gajri/White, Mozambique	₹6,550–6,600/qtl	≈ 72.1–72.6

Import costs into Chennai have moved higher, with Lemon arhar for April–May reportedly up about USD 10 per tonne to roughly USD 855 per tonne C&F, or close to EUR 940.5 per tonne on a simple conversion. This strengthening of import parity highlights that any further softening in domestic spot prices will quickly collide with replacement-cost resistance.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Policy Backdrop

Fundamentals suggest a mildly tightening balance. Government production estimates for the 2025–26 season have been trimmed to roughly 3.4–3.5 million tonnes, down from about 3.6–3.7 million tonnes a year earlier, implying a 4–5% decline. While not dramatic, this reduction is significant for a staple pulse with limited near-term substitution options, especially in key consuming states.

On the policy side, authorities hold around 550,000 tonnes of pigeon pea in pool stocks, and MSP procurement at roughly ₹8,000 per quintal (about EUR 88/100 kg) is ongoing across several producing regions. Actual seasonal procurement, however, is still only around 200,000 tonnes, which is modest relative to total output and consumption and leaves the private trade with a decisive role in price discovery.

To safeguard availability, the government has extended duty-free import arrangements for pigeon pea and black gram from 31 March 2026 to 31 March 2027. This ensures continued inflows from Myanmar, Mozambique and other African origins and serves as a structural cap on extreme price spikes, even if domestic production undershoots expectations. At the same time, the higher landed costs for Myanmar-origin parcels limit how far spot prices can fall without discouraging further import bookings.

📊 Market Behaviour & Mill Purchasing

Dal processing mills are currently in a tactical pause, having built some working stocks and now reassessing price risk versus imported alternatives. This has led to the observed softening in spot values across Chennai and Mumbai. However, expectations are that mills will need to step back into the market over the coming weeks to replenish inventories, especially if festival-driven demand or any policy-driven distribution programs accelerate off-take.

Importer behaviour is equally important: many holders of older import lots are reluctant to sell at prevailing prices, as their acquisition costs were higher. This reluctance to liquidate stocks at a loss compresses available spot volumes and dampens any concerted downward move in prices. As a result, the market finds itself with a relatively firm floor, supported by both policy instruments and private trade positioning.

African-origin pigeon pea, trading at a substantial discount to Myanmar and domestic varieties, is likely to capture the bulk of near-term mill demand. These origins offer attractive crushing margins and allow processors to maintain end-product competitiveness without sacrificing throughput, especially for lower- and mid-priced dal blends.

📉 Risks, Weather & Short-Term Outlook

Looking ahead over the next two to four weeks, the downside in pigeon pea prices appears limited. MSP operations near ₹8,000 per quintal, a modest output deficit, firm import costs and importer caution collectively argue against a sharp correction. Any brief sell-off sparked by mill destocking is likely to meet steady buying interest from both private traders and government agencies.

The main upside risks are centred on policy and external supply. A faster-than-expected ramp-up in government procurement, particularly if buffer stock targets are raised, could quickly tighten available free market supplies and pull prices back towards the ₹8,300–₹8,500 per quintal zone (approximately EUR 91.3–93.5/100 kg). Additionally, any disruption or further tightening in Myanmar supply – whether from logistics, weather, or regulatory changes – would lift import parity and spill over into domestic quotations.

Weather for upcoming sowing windows will matter more for the medium-term balance than the immediate price trend. For now, the combination of stable policy, modest production decline and firm import benchmarks suggests a sideways-to-firm market bias, rather than pronounced volatility, barring any major external shock.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3-Day Price Indication

Key Takeaways for Market Participants

• Buyers (mills, end-users): Use current mild softness to secure staggered coverage, prioritising discounted African-origin material while keeping some flexibility for potential policy-driven rallies.
• Sellers (farmers, stockists): MSP near ₹8,000/qtl offers a credible floor; aggressive selling below this level appears unjustified unless policy signals change or import costs ease materially.
• Importers: Replacement costs from Myanmar are edging higher; new bookings should focus on managing currency and policy risks, with a preference for hedged or diversified origin exposure.

Indicative 3-Day Directional Outlook (Major Indian Hubs)

• Chennai – Myanmar Lemon arhar: Mostly sideways with a slight firm bias as higher C&F values filter through to bids.
• Delhi – Lemon arhar: Stable around current levels; MSP and limited fresh selling to keep the market supported.
• Mumbai – African-origin arhar: Sideways to marginally firmer as mills favour discounted origins and available spot stocks remain measured.