UK pea prices steady as weather turns unsettled and Black Sea risk premium holds

UK pea prices are flat into early April, with London FOB values for green and marrowfat peas unchanged week-on-week, while Ukrainian origins remain deeply discounted but exposed to Black Sea logistics risk. In the short term, slightly wetter, windier UK weather and stable EU grain markets point to sideways pricing with a mild upside bias if sowing progress is interrupted.

UK pea markets enter April in a relatively calm phase, with no fresh domestic supply shock and broader grain and pulse benchmarks also trading in narrow ranges. Recent UK weather has been mixed but manageable for early spring fieldwork; however, Met Office guidance flags a turn to more unsettled, wetter and windier conditions as a series of fronts cross the country, which could slow planting in key eastern regions if they persist. At the same time, Ukrainian export flows through Black Sea and Danube routes continue under an elevated geopolitical risk premium, as seen across grains and millet, but without immediate disruption to pulse quotations.

📈 Prices

Indicative spot levels converted to EUR (approximate, using 1 GBP ≈ 1.17 EUR; 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR where relevant):

Origin	Type	Location / Term	Price (EUR/kg)	WoW Change
UK	Green peas	London, FOB	≈ 1.19	Stable
UK	Marrowfat peas	London, FOB	≈ 1.56	Stable
Ukraine	Green peas 98%	Odesa, FCA	≈ 0.41	Stable
Ukraine	Yellow peas 98%	Odesa, FCA	≈ 0.32	Stable

Broad agri markets in Europe remain generally softer than a year ago, as shown by Eurostat’s Q4 2025 data, which reported declining average agricultural output prices in many EU countries, even as fertiliser costs edged higher again. This backdrop caps upside in feed and commodity-grade pea pricing, while higher input costs help to underpin premiums for specialist types such as UK marrowfat.

🌍 Supply & Demand

UK pea supply is currently shaped more by farmers’ marketing pace than by physical scarcity. The relatively narrow spread versus other protein feeds and cereals in nearby EU markets, such as Irish feed barley and wheat offers around EUR 185–190/t, indicates that peas are competitively but not aggressively priced in feed rations. Export demand for high-quality food-grade peas, particularly marrowfat, remains niche but firm, supporting the notable premium over green peas.

From the Black Sea, Ukraine continues to channel substantial grain and pulse volumes via Odesa-region ports and alternative Danube routes. Recent reporting on millet markets highlights that sea exports are still flowing despite sporadic drone and missile strikes on port infrastructure, with prices holding steady but clearly carrying a logistics risk premium. For peas, this translates into persistently low FCA levels in Odesa relative to UK FOB, sustaining a strong discount that attracts price-sensitive buyers but leaves room for volatility if port operations are disrupted.

🌦 Weather outlook (UK focus)

Met Office forecasts for the coming days point to a shift toward more unsettled conditions across much of the UK, with a series of frontal systems bringing on-and-off rain, brisk winds and generally cloudy skies. Eastern England and southern Scotland – key pulse-growing areas – are expected to see spells of rain that may periodically halt fieldwork but are unlikely, at this stage, to cause widespread flooding or severe delays.

Soil moisture, following earlier mixed weather and a relatively wet winter, should remain adequate to support pea emergence once planted, though any prolonged wet spell could complicate drilling schedules on heavier land. With no severe cold in the short-term outlook and only typical early-April variability, weather is a mild supportive factor rather than a clear bullish catalyst for UK pea prices over the next few days.

📊 Fundamentals & Risk Drivers

• Macro price environment: EU ag output prices have been trending lower, reducing the scope for sharp near-term rallies in peas, even as fertiliser prices tick higher and keep production margins tight.
• Competing crops: EU feed grains remain relatively cheap, with recent Irish prices around EUR 185–190/t, pressuring feed-grade pea demand and anchoring green pea values.
• Black Sea exposure: Ukraine’s wider grain and wheat markets illustrate how risk premia build into port bids when sowing costs and geopolitical threats rise, with port prices firming even on steady fundamentals. A similar mechanism could quickly affect pea values at Odesa if corridor stability deteriorates.
• Logistics & ports: Recent drone strike damage to Odesa-region port warehouses in early April underscores the fragility of export routes, even though actual flows of millet and other grains have so far remained intact.

📆 Short-term Trading Outlook

• UK buyers (food-grade/marrowfat): Current flat prices and only modest weather risk argue for maintaining routine coverage, but not aggressively chasing additional volumes unless forecasts shift toward prolonged wet conditions.
• UK growers: With peas still offering a premium over many alternative feed crops, the incentive is to proceed with planned sowings where field conditions allow, but to avoid forward-selling too heavily given lingering geopolitical and input-cost uncertainties.
• Importers in EU/Med: Ukrainian peas remain attractive on price; however, buyers should factor in potential shipment delays and consider a diversified origin mix to hedge against episodic port disruptions in Odesa.

📉 3‑day Regional Price Direction (EUR)

• UK London FOB green peas: ≈ EUR 1.19/kg – Sideways. Stable domestic balance and muted external drivers.
• UK London FOB marrowfat peas: ≈ EUR 1.56/kg – Sideways to slightly firmer on tight specialty demand and higher production costs.
• Ukraine Odesa FCA peas (green/yellow): ≈ EUR 0.41 / 0.32 kg – Sideways, with headline-driven spike risk if Black Sea tensions escalate or port damage intensifies.