Indian Lentils Ease As Imports Build, But Downside Remains Capped

Indian lentil prices are drifting lower for a second session, pressured by steady import arrivals and ample public stocks, but structural tightness and policy factors are preventing a sharp correction. The near term points to range-bound to slightly weaker domestic prices unless policy shifts or a deeper production shock emerge.

Domestic trading remains cautious as mills buy hand-to-mouth and ports prepare for a fresh Canadian vessel, while a 10% import duty and weaker rupee keep landed costs elevated. For the next 2–4 weeks, the market looks modestly bearish but with limited downside, especially for imported grades.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Desi masoor in India has softened for the second consecutive session, with Delhi quotes slipping to about EUR 73.5–73.8 per quintal and Katni (Madhya Pradesh) near EUR 72.4 per quintal (approximate conversion from USD). Imported Canadian lentils in containers are stable around EUR 67.3–67.6 per quintal, while Australian containers have eased slightly to roughly EUR 66.7–67.3 per quintal. At Mundra and Hazira ports, bulk Canadian cargoes are holding near EUR 64.8–65.1 per quintal, underscoring a clear discount of port stocks versus inland domestic desi masoor.

Internationally, recent Canadian FOB Ottawa values show a stable structure: red football types around EUR 2.58/kg, Laird green at EUR 1.75/kg, and Eston green near EUR 1.65/kg, unchanged over the past week, signalling a sideways global market with India as the key demand anchor.

Market / Origin	Product	Price (EUR/100 kg)	Trend (1 week)
Delhi (IN)	Desi masoor	73.5–73.8	⬇ modestly
Katni (IN)	Desi masoor	≈72.4	⬇
Mundra/Hazira (IN)	Canadian red, bulk	64.8–65.1	➡
Ottawa (CA, FOB)	Red football	258	➡
Ottawa (CA, FOB)	Laird green	175	➡
Ottawa (CA, FOB)	Eston green	165	➡

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

A central bearish driver is the robust import pipeline. A Canadian vessel carrying 43,278 tonnes of pulses, including 11,000 tonnes of lentils and 32,278 tonnes of yellow peas, is scheduled to arrive at Mundra on 19 April 2026. This shipment will land on top of already comfortable port inventories, effectively capping upside on imported values and indirectly pressuring domestic desi masoor.

Public stocks are also significant: the central government holds around 400,000 tonnes of lentils, and broader pulse reserves have been reported near 2.8 million tonnes, giving policymakers space to intervene if prices spike. Even so, domestic 2025/26 production in key states Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh is running below earlier expectations, with fresh arrivals slower than anticipated due to adverse weather and reduced area, leaving India in a structural deficit that must be bridged by imports.

On the demand side, seasonal consumption from high-intensity states such as Bihar, West Bengal and Assam should remain firm in the coming weeks, providing a solid floor to offtake. However, dal mills are currently purchasing only on a need basis, reflecting uncertainty over post-vessel price direction and encouraging a wait-and-see stance across the value chain.

📊 Policy, Currency & External Factors

The 10% import duty on lentils, maintained by the central government, combined with a weaker rupee, is keeping landed prices elevated in local currency terms, offsetting part of the bearish impact from higher physical availability. This policy backdrop means that even as more Canadian and Australian cargoes arrive, the domestic market is unlikely to see a deep price correction unless duty is reduced or the rupee strengthens meaningfully.

At the same time, India has recently extended duty-free imports for yellow peas until March 2027, which may divert some demand away from lentils into cheaper pea-based dals at the margin. Nonetheless, given India’s structural lentil deficit of roughly 1.1–1.2 million tonnes in 2025/26, international suppliers—particularly Canada—are expected to enjoy a stable export programme, with current FOB price stability in Ottawa reflecting this balanced but tight global sheet.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

Adverse weather earlier in the season in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh has already contributed to lower-than-expected yields and slower arrivals. Looking ahead, the India Meteorological Department is flagging renewed bouts of rain, thunderstorms and hail across parts of Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northwest India in early April, which could temporarily disrupt late harvesting, logistics and transport. While the main lentil harvest window is largely passed, any further weather-related delays in moving stocks from farms to mandis could tighten near-term spot availability.

For now, these weather events are more of a logistical than a yield story, but they may support local prices intermittently if arrivals slow into key wholesale markets such as Katni and other hubs in central and northern India.

📆 2–4 Week Price & Trading Outlook

The short-term outlook for Indian lentils is modestly bearish, with an expected range-bound to slightly lower price pattern. The combination of an incoming Canadian vessel, steady import flows and comfortable public stocks points to continued pressure on domestic desi masoor, especially in inland markets that currently command a premium over port-delivered imported red lentils.

However, the downside appears limited by the 10% import duty, the weaker rupee, ongoing structural production–consumption gaps and seasonal demand from eastern consuming states. Upside risk in the next month would likely require a policy shock (for example, tighter import rules) or a sharper-than-expected deterioration in domestic crop estimates.

🎯 Trading Recommendations (Short Term)

• Importers / Traders in India: Prioritise covering near-term needs from already-booked or nearby Canadian/Australian cargoes, as the 19 April vessel and existing port stocks should keep imported prices capped. Avoid aggressive forward buying until post-arrival price action becomes clearer.
• Dal mills: Maintain hand-to-mouth procurement in the immediate term, but consider gradually building inventories on price dips closer to port-equivalent levels, given structural deficit and seasonal demand that are likely to support prices beyond the next 4–6 weeks.
• Producers in Canada: With FOB prices stable and India structurally short, use current sideways market to lock in forward sales selectively, focusing on red types where Indian demand remains strongest and spreads versus greens remain favourable.
• EU / Mediterranean buyers: Monitor Indian procurement closely; any renewed rally in India later in the year could quickly transmit into higher global values. Short-term, the current Indian easing offers a window to secure some coverage at still-attractive FOB levels.

📍 3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR Terms)

• India – Desi masoor (Delhi, Katni): Slight downward bias, but largely range-bound as mills stay cautious and arrivals continue at a slow but steady pace.
• India – Imported Canadian red (Mundra/Hazira): Mostly stable in the next three days, with trade focused on positioning ahead of the 19 April vessel rather than immediate price moves.
• Canada – FOB Ottawa red & green lentils: Sideways in EUR terms, with minor moves driven more by FX fluctuations than fundamental shifts.