Dried Apricot Prices Hold Firm as Cool Weather Returns to Malatya

Dried apricot prices from Türkiye are broadly steady to slightly firmer, with FOB Malatya and Ankara quotations unchanged in EUR terms and only modest gains on European FCA cubes. Tight farmer selling and structurally low carryover keep a floor under the market despite softer export demand and a weaker macro backdrop.

Cool, unsettled weather is returning to eastern Türkiye over the next three days, but current forecasts for Malatya point to single‑digit night temperatures above freezing, suggesting limited immediate frost risk for blooming orchards. With memories of last year’s severe April frost still fresh, the market remains highly sensitive to any colder turn, yet for now the price tone is driven more by supply discipline, inflation and financing costs than by weather shocks.

📈 Prices & Spreads

FOB offers out of Malatya/Ankara are stable versus early April levels. Conventional unsulphured sizes 1–5 are indicated around EUR 8.55–8.00/kg FOB, while sulphured 2,000 ppm grades trade broadly between EUR 8.70–7.20/kg FOB, in line with this week’s independent market assessments for Turkish dried apricots.

Organic unsulphured grades carry a firm premium, with size 1–3 material roughly EUR 1.5–2.0/kg above comparable conventional lots ex-Malatya. FCA prices for Turkish cubes in the Netherlands have nudged up by about EUR 0.05/kg over the past fortnight, reflecting higher replacement costs from origin and stable downstream demand in Europe.

Product	Grade / Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	W/W Move
Dried apricots, unsulphured	No. 1–5, Malatya	FOB TR	8.55–8.00	Stable
Dried apricots, sulphured 2,000 ppm	No. 1–6, Malatya/Ankara	FOB TR	8.70–7.20	Flat to +0.05
Dried apricot cubes	No. 1–8, NL	FCA NL	6.40–5.50	+0.05

🌍 Supply, Demand & Macro Backdrop

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier of dried apricots, with Malatya alone accounting for a substantial share of national production. Stocks into the 2025/26 marketing year were already tight after severe spring frosts in April 2025 slashed last season’s crop and constrained exportable surplus, keeping prices elevated into early 2026.

On the demand side, European buyers—still the key outlets for Turkish dried apricots—have been cautious amid weaker macro conditions and food inflation, but baseline offtake continues. Turkey’s overall exports have softened and the trade deficit widened in March 2026, as tighter domestic monetary policy and high financing costs weigh on exporters, partly offsetting support from the weaker lira. For dried apricots, this translates into disciplined farmer selling and limited discounting, rather than aggressive offer cuts.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook (TR – Malatya Focus)

Apricot orchards across eastern Türkiye, including nearby Elazığ, entered full bloom around the end of March, underlining the crop’s current sensitivity to cold snaps. Forecasts for Malatya from 9–11 April 2026 indicate daytime highs around 8–12°C and night lows near 3–4°C, with clouds and scattered showers but no sustained sub‑zero temperatures.

National meteorological warnings highlight renewed agricultural frost risk mainly for parts of Marmara, the interior Black Sea and northern/eastern Central Anatolia, rather than Malatya’s core apricot belt. After last year’s severe April frosts that caused heavy fruit losses across Türkiye, including Malatya, the trade remains highly vigilant; however, current local forecasts suggest only a low near‑term probability of frost damage to the 2026 apricot set.

📊 Market Drivers & Risks

• Tight carryover and disciplined selling: Limited stocks after the frost‑reduced 2025 crop and cautious farmer selling underpin prices and keep FOB values steady to firm despite patchy demand.
• Macro headwinds for exporters: Turkey’s widening trade deficit, elevated inflation and expectations of further monetary tightening increase financing costs for exporters, discouraging aggressive forward sales.
• Weather vigilance but no immediate shock: Cool, damp conditions and regional frost advisories keep risk premium alive, yet Malatya’s current temperature profile stays above critical thresholds for blossom damage.
• Europe-led demand: The EU and UK remain the main sinks for Turkish dried apricots; while consumption is not booming, stable retail and ingredient use help absorb available supply at today’s price levels.

📆 Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Buyers with nearby gaps: Consider covering Q2 needs soon, as stable origin prices and firmer FCA cubes suggest limited downside in the short term, especially if any late frost scares emerge.
• Well‑covered importers: Those with coverage through summer can remain patient, monitoring weather and macro news; sudden price breaks look unlikely without a demand shock.
• Sellers/exporters: Current levels appear defensible; avoid heavy discounting unless evidence of a pronounced demand slowdown in core EU markets appears.

📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (TR)

• Malatya FOB conventional (sulphured & unsulphured): Prices expected to remain broadly flat over the next three days, within roughly EUR 7.20–8.70/kg depending on grade, as cool but non‑freezing weather limits new crop fears and replacement costs stay firm.
• Malatya FOB organic unsulphured: Premiums likely to hold steady, keeping offers in the low‑to‑mid EUR 9–10/kg range, with thin liquidity but no strong pressure either side.
• EU FCA cubes (NL, PL warehouses): Mildly firm tone expected to persist, with prices roughly EUR 5.50–6.40/kg as long as origin quotations stay stable and logistics remain smooth.