Turkish Raisin Prices Hold Steady as Stable Weather Supports Supply

Turkish raisin prices are stable this week, with Malatya sultana offers unchanged and no immediate weather threats to vineyards. Macro cost pressures from energy and fertilizer remain in focus, but are not yet translating into higher raisin quotations.

Turkish sultana exporters enter mid‑April with a relatively calm price environment. Broader Turkish food inflation surprised on the downside in March, helped by benign domestic food prices, while the Iran–Gulf conflict mainly feeds through via higher energy and fertilizer costs rather than acute supply shocks for dried fruit. In Malatya, current spring conditions are seasonally cool and moderate, with no frost or extreme rainfall reported in the past few days, supporting vine development. European demand for Turkish raisins remains solid but not overheated, as importers balance tight global dried‑fruit stocks with already elevated price levels.

📈 Prices

All prices converted to EUR using an indicative rate of 1 EUR ≈ 44 TRY and 1 EUR ≈ 1.08 USD.

Origin / Type	Location & Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	WoW Change	Comment
TR sultanas type 9, RTU	Malatya, CIF	≈ 2.40	0%	Flat since 1 April; no fresh supply shock.
TR sultanas type 9, grade A	Malatya, FOB	≈ 2.35	0%	Stable after mid‑March uptick.
TR sultanas type 8, grade A	Malatya, FOB	≈ 2.20	0%	Holds discount vs. type 9; steady demand.
TR sultanas type 10, grade A	Malatya, FOB	≈ 2.65	0%	Premium large berry; no new buying wave.
TR organic sultanas type 9	Malatya, FOB	≈ 3.10	0%	Wide but stable organic premium.

Relative value signals:

• Conventional TR sultanas type 9 FOB at about 2.35 EUR/kg sit close to Chinese and Chilean offers into Europe, keeping Turkey competitive despite elevated domestic costs.
• Organic sultanas carry a premium of roughly 30–35% over conventional, in line with broader dried‑fruit markets.

🌍 Supply & Demand

Turkish macro data show March food inflation running below expectations, indicating no broad cost‑push spike in retail food yet, despite higher fertilizer and energy prices since the Iran conflict escalated in late February. This helps explain why export‑oriented raisin offers out of Malatya are flat week‑on‑week.

Turkey remains one of the world’s key grape and raisin suppliers, with vineyards concentrated in western and central regions and a strong export focus on the EU. Recent trade data show Turkey’s exports softening in volume terms in March, as higher interest rates and tighter financing conditions weigh on exporters more broadly, but dried fruit appears less exposed than bulk commodities.

On the demand side, European bakery and snack demand remains steady into Q2, with buyers cautious but still willing to cover forward for core ingredients such as raisins. Industry commentary for dried fruit and nuts highlights ongoing tightness in global supply and limited carryover stocks, supporting a floor under Turkish raisin prices even in the absence of new weather threats.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Spring 2026 weather in Malatya and other Anatolian fruit belts has so far tracked close to seasonal norms, with daytime temperatures in early April generally in the low to mid‑teens Celsius and no reports of widespread frost in the last week. This contrasts with some past seasons when late frosts damaged stone fruit and vine crops.

For dried fruit more broadly, recent reports on the apricot market describe a stable to slightly firmer Turkish price environment, underpinned by low frost risk and unchanged FOB offers since 1 April. The same regional weather pattern benefits raisin vines, suggesting current crop potential remains intact. Input‑side, fertilizer prices in Turkey have risen 8–55% since the Iran conflict, and oil above 100 USD/bbl has pushed up transport costs, raising medium‑term cost‑push risk for the next crop if sustained.

Currency dynamics are mixed for exporters. While structural lira weakness over recent years has supported export competitiveness, authorities are currently using reserves and tight monetary policy to limit nominal depreciation, which tempers additional FX support for raisin offers in EUR terms.

📆 Short-Term Outlook (3 Days)

Weather – Malatya & key TR raisin regions (9–11 April 2026)

• Temperatures: Mild spring conditions with cool nights and no significant frost risk expected.
• Precipitation: Light, scattered showers only; no heavy rain events forecast that could disrupt vineyard work.
• Net impact: Neutral to slightly supportive for vine development; no immediate production concerns.

Price direction – Next 3 days

• TR Malatya FOB/CIF sultanas (all grades): Sideways; offers expected to trade in a tight range around current levels, with bid/offer spreads stable.
• Competitive origins (EU import perspective): Chinese, Indian and Chilean raisins into EU likely to remain broadly steady as well, limiting arbitrage‑driven moves in Turkish quotes.
• Risk bias: Slightly firmer bias medium term if energy and fertilizer costs remain elevated and if EU demand improves into late April; negligible downside in the immediate 3‑day horizon.

📌 Trading Outlook

• EU & MENA buyers: Use the current sideways price window to extend cover modestly for Q2–Q3, especially in type 9 and 10 sultanas, given tight global dried‑fruit stocks and stable Turkish weather.
• Turkish packers/exporters: Maintain offer discipline; avoid aggressive discounting while monitoring energy and packaging costs and the lira. Consider small price increases only if freight or input costs move higher in coming weeks.
• Industry users (bakery, cereal, snacks): Hedge a portion of 2026 needs now; downside appears limited while geopolitical and cost risks skew medium‑term prices upward.