Chinese Sunflower Kernel Prices Edge Higher While Black Sea Seeds Stay Soft

Chinese sunflower kernel and seed prices are mildly firmer this week, while Black Sea sunflower seed values remain soft amid comfortable global oilseed supplies and weaker Russian sunflower oil exports.

Sunflower kernels FOB Beijing are holding a premium over Ukrainian material, supported by steady snack and bakery demand and short‑term tightening in domestic spot availability. In the Black Sea, sunflower seed and meal are capped by sluggish crush margins and reduced Russian oil exports, even as global sunflower production is projected to reach record levels in 2026/27. Warmer, dry weather in North China over the coming three days should favor fieldwork and logistics rather than offer any immediate weather premium.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices converted to EUR using an indicative 1 USD = 0.93 EUR where needed.

Product	Origin / Location	Term	Latest Price (EUR/t)	1w Change	Comments
Sunflower kernels, hulled, confection, organic	CN / Beijing	FOB	≈ €1,165/t	+0.8%	Steady demand from export snack segment; limited nearby offers.
Sunflower seeds, black with stripe	CN / Beijing	FOB	≈ €1,350/t	-1.4%	Small correction after Q1 rally; competition from other snack nuts.
Sunflower kernels, hulled, confection (conv.)	CN / Beijing	FOB	≈ €1,245/t	+1.8%	Export‑oriented processors running at high utilization.
Sunflower seeds, black	UA / Odesa	FOB	≈ €540/t	+1.8%	Marginal uptick, still historically cheap vs kernels.
Sunflower kernels, bakery	UA / Dnipro	FCA	≈ €895/t	stable	Well below Chinese offers; reflects weaker regional demand.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Global sunflower seed fundamentals remain comfortable. Oil World and other analysts project that world sunflower seed production in 2026/27 could reach a record 62–63 million tonnes under normal weather, up from about 59.4 million tonnes in 2023/24. This reinforces a medium‑term bearish bias for raw seed values, particularly in the Black Sea and EU.

In Russia, sunflower oil exports in the first half of the 2025/26 season fell around 14% year on year to 2.31 million tonnes, accounting for more than 65% of the country’s total vegetable oil exports. Reduced Russian export flows, combined with higher export duties on sunflower oil and meal, are squeezing crush margins and pressuring domestic sunflower seed prices, while shifting some demand towards Ukrainian origin.

Ukraine remains a pivotal supplier of sunflower oil and meal, and is expected to expand oilseed production and processing in coming seasons, further consolidating its Black Sea role. For Chinese buyers, this means continued abundant access to competitively priced Black Sea oil and meal, while domestic kernels for snacks and bakery retain a distinct premium linked more to processing and branding than to bulk oilseed fundamentals.

☀️ Weather Snapshot – North China (Beijing)

The short‑term weather outlook for Beijing and surrounding sunflower‑growing areas shows a transition from cooler, cloudy conditions to unusually warm, sunny weather. On April 9, temperatures hover around 10–13°C with light rain and drizzle, followed by a sharp warm‑up on April 10–11 with highs near 28–29°C and mostly sunny skies.

This 3‑day pattern favors early field preparation and smooth logistics rather than creating weather risk. Soil moisture is supported by current precipitation, while the rapid warming should improve germination conditions once sowing accelerates. No immediate weather‑driven upside is visible for Chinese sunflower prices in the very short term, though persistent heat and air‑quality issues later in April would merit closer monitoring for yield risk.

📊 Market Drivers & Price Implications

• Record global production on the horizon: Expectations of a record 62–63 Mt sunflower crop in 2026/27 cap upside for raw seeds and oil in the medium term, particularly from the Black Sea.
• Russian export slowdown and duty regime: Lower Russian sunflower oil exports (‑14% y/y) and higher export duties are depressing Russian seed prices while improving relative competitiveness for Ukrainian oil and meal.
• Strong Chinese snack demand: Chinese shelling and snack processors are running hard to serve robust domestic and export demand for packaged sunflower seeds and kernels, underpinning FOB Beijing premiums over Black Sea offers.
• Vegetable oil complex: Sunflower oil participates in the broader firmness of the global vegoil basket, supported by tightness and policy‑driven volatility, even if seed prices have not fully followed higher oil quotations yet.

🧭 Trading Outlook

• Chinese buyers (kernels & snack seeds): Consider locking in part of Q2–Q3 needs at current FOB Beijing levels for confection and bakery kernels, as domestic premiums over Black Sea look sustainable on strong demand and good margins in the snack segment.
• Importers in Asia & MENA: Ukrainian sunflower seeds and meal remain attractively priced relative to Chinese kernels; favor Black Sea origin for crushing and feed while reserving Chinese product for higher‑value retail lines.
• Producers in China: Use the current firmness to forward‑sell small volumes, but keep flexibility in case record global production and softer oil prices later in the year start to weigh on kernel values.
• Speculative participants: Near‑term upside in sunflower seeds looks limited; consider selling rallies in Black Sea seed futures or basis contracts while maintaining optionality on sunflower oil, where Russian policy risk keeps volatility elevated.

📆 3‑Day Price Direction Outlook (EUR)

• CN Beijing – kernels (hulled, confection/bakery): Sideways to slightly firmer over the next three days, with quotes likely to hold in a €1,200–1,260/t FOB range, supported by steady export enquires and benign weather.
• CN Beijing – snack seeds (black with stripe): Mild downward bias after recent easing; prices expected to consolidate around €1,320–1,350/t FOB as buyers become more price‑sensitive.
• UA Black Sea – sunflower seeds & kernels: Mostly stable, trading in a narrow band given comfortable supply and constrained crush margins; any gains should lag moves in sunflower oil.