Bangladesh Rice Market: High Prices Ahead Despite Strong Harvests

Domestic rice production in Bangladesh remains strong, yet high costs and rising demand are set to keep prices elevated through most of MY 2026/27. Imports will increase despite a near-record crop, as the new government prioritises food security and price stability via continued tariff relief and active public stock management.

Bangladesh’s rice market enters MY 2026/27 with solid fundamentals: total milled output is forecast at 37.4 million MT, only marginally below last year’s record, while public stocks are significantly higher than a year ago. Still, structurally high production costs, persistent inflation and growing consumption (including non-food uses) are preventing a meaningful price correction. Retail prices started to ease from January 2026 but remain well above pre-2024 levels. Weather so far has been broadly favourable, with no major disasters reported, but fuel and fertiliser constraints are weighing on boro yields and farmer margins. In this environment, the government is leaning on imports, reduced tariffs and expanded safety-net distributions to contain consumer prices and political risks.

📈 Prices

Rice prices in Bangladesh remain high in historical terms, even after a modest correction at the start of 2026. Coarse rice averaged about BDT 55/kg in March 2026, roughly 4.8% above the prior-year level and close to the upper end of the BDT 50–55/kg range seen in 2024. Fine non-aromatic rice, after peaking around BDT 80/kg in September 2025, eased to about BDT 77.5/kg by March 2026, slightly below last year but still elevated in real terms.

For international reference, recent FOB offers translate into roughly EUR 0.40–0.45/kg for Vietnamese long white 5% and Jasmine rice, around EUR 0.58–0.60/kg for premium Indian parboiled basmati-type steam rice, and up to about EUR 0.95–1.00/kg for specialty black and high-value aromatic segments (converted from current USD/BDT-based offers into EUR). These values frame Bangladesh’s import parity, particularly from India and Vietnam, where freight and remaining duties still need to be added to land the grain into Chattogram or land ports.

Product	Origin	Term	Current price (EUR/kg)
Long white 5% broken	Vietnam	FOB Hanoi	≈ 0.43
Jasmine	Vietnam	FOB Hanoi	≈ 0.45
1121 steam basmati-type	India	FOB New Delhi	≈ 0.81
Coarse milled rice (retail)	Bangladesh	Dhaka market (est.)	≈ 0.42–0.47*

*Retail estimates converted from BDT at a working rate and shown in EUR for comparison.

🌍 Supply & Demand

Bangladesh’s rice supply in MY 2026/27 will be underpinned by a large domestic crop and ample carry-in stocks. Total harvested area is forecast at 11.8 million hectares, up 0.4% from MY 2025/26, with milled production at 37.4 million MT, only 0.7% lower due to slightly weaker boro yields linked to fuel and fertiliser constraints. Boro remains the backbone of supply, contributing over half of annual output, followed by aman and a much smaller aus crop.

On the demand side, total rice consumption is forecast to rise to 39.1 million MT in MY 2026/27, about 1.3% above the previous year. While per-capita direct food consumption has trended lower over the last two decades, population growth and increasing use in animal feed (broken rice, bran and milling by-products) are lifting aggregate demand. Government food distribution programmes are also expanding, with public rice allocations in July 2025–March 2026 up more than 16% year-on-year, reinforcing structural demand even as private consumption adjusts to high prices.

To bridge the gap between production and rising consumption, imports are set to grow. MY 2026/27 rice imports are forecast at 1.5 million MT, up from an estimated 1.4 million MT in MY 2025/26. India is expected to remain the dominant supplier due to price competitiveness and logistics, though volumes will depend on India’s export policies and Bangladesh’s tariff stance. Exports from Bangladesh, mostly aromatic varieties destined for diaspora markets, are marginal at around 10,000 MT and do not materially alter the domestic balance sheet.

📊 Fundamentals & Policy

Production fundamentals are mixed: area is expanding slightly, and no major weather shocks have hit the 2025/26 boro crop, but input bottlenecks are eroding yield potential and farmer profitability. Limited diesel supplies have disrupted irrigation pump operations, and farmers in several northern districts have been forced to pay BDT 3–5/kg above the official prices for key fertilisers such as urea, MOP, DAP and TSP. Labour costs are also rising, particularly during peak transplanting and harvest windows, given the limited mechanisation of field operations.

Despite these challenges, public stocks are healthy. Government-held rice stocks stood at about 1.56 million MT in March 2026, roughly 55% above the year-ago level, thanks to strong domestic procurement during aman and boro seasons and additional imports. Ending stocks for MY 2025/26 are estimated at 2.17 million MT, with a still-comfortable 1.96 million MT projected for MY 2026/27 even after higher distribution. These buffers give policymakers room to intervene in the market through Open Market Sales and safety-net schemes if prices spike again.

On the policy front, the tariff environment remains explicitly supportive of imports. The long-standing total tax incidence of 66.25% on rice imports has effectively been suspended; currently only the 5% advance income tax is applied. This reduced duty regime is expected to stay in place at least through the boro harvest (April–May 2026), cushioning domestic prices by improving import parity. The new government has signalled that it will continue to combine public tenders and government-to-government deals with private sector participation to secure supply and manage price risks, especially given ongoing foreign exchange and inflation pressures.

🌦 Weather & Crop Conditions

Weather so far in the current boro season has been broadly supportive for vegetative growth, with limited rainfall in early 2026 helping to maintain favourable field conditions. As of late March 2026, there were no reports of droughts, heatwaves, cyclones or major pest outbreaks affecting rice fields, and aman and aus crops are expected to proceed under normal seasonal patterns assuming typical monsoon onset and distribution.

Short-term outlooks indicate scattered rain and thunderstorms across Bangladesh in early April, which should not materially disrupt harvest operations but may temporarily affect logistics in some low-lying areas. For the upcoming aus and aman seasons, the key risk remains the timing and intensity of monsoon rains as well as potential flash floods in haor and border districts. Authorities and extension services are promoting shorter-duration and stress-tolerant varieties in high-risk zones to limit yield losses from sudden flooding, which should help stabilise aggregate output if adopted at scale.

📆 Market & Trading Outlook

Looking ahead, domestic rice prices are expected to ease seasonally as new boro supplies enter the market from May 2026, with a likely 2–3 month window of softer prices before upward pressures re-emerge around August 2026. High production costs and still-strong demand mean that any decline will likely be modest compared to the sharp run-up seen in late 2025. Inflationary pressures and potential fuel or fertiliser disruptions remain key upside risks for prices, while policy interventions via imports and public sales serve as the main downside stabilisers.

For international suppliers, Bangladesh will remain an active buyer in MY 2026/27, particularly for competitively priced non-basmati white and parboiled rice from India and Vietnam. Stable to slightly softer global quotations in EUR terms, combined with the current low-tariff regime, favour continued import flows despite the strong domestic harvest. However, any abrupt change in India’s export policy, freight disruptions in the Bay of Bengal, or domestic political pressure to reintroduce higher tariffs after the harvest window could tighten import demand and support local prices.

💼 Trading guidance (concise)

• Importers in Bangladesh: Use the May–July 2026 boro arrival window to secure volumes on price dips; prioritise short-to-medium tenor contracts to retain flexibility if tariffs rise later in the year.
• Exporters in India/Vietnam: Maintain competitive EUR-denominated offers for parboiled and 5% broken grades, as Bangladesh will likely chase value and logistics reliability rather than origin diversification in 2026/27.
• Domestic millers & traders: Avoid overstocking at current elevated wholesale levels; focus on rapid turnover around government procurement and OMS programmes, and hedge against potential policy shifts on import duties in Q3 2026.

📍 3‑day directional outlook (EUR-based, indicative)

• Bangladesh (Dhaka coarse retail, ≈ EUR 0.42–0.47/kg): Sideways to slightly softer as expectations of imminent boro supplies weigh on sentiment, but no sharp correction before larger volumes arrive.
• FOB Vietnam, long white 5% (≈ EUR 0.43/kg): Broadly stable; competitive against Indian non-basmati for Bangladesh-bound tenders, with modest downside limited by regional demand.
• FOB India, non-basmati white & parboiled (≈ EUR 0.42–0.60/kg depending on grade): Slight downward bias over the next few days as offers adjust to keep parity attractive for South Asian buyers, including Bangladesh.