Ukraine sunflower complex: tight seeds, higher crush and firm prices

Ukraine’s sunflower complex is moving from shortage to gradual recovery: seed output is forecast to rise in 2026/27, but crush demand and low stocks keep domestic prices firm and support sunflower oil and meal exports.

After two tight seasons, the Ukrainian sunflower market is entering 2026/27 with larger sown area, improved moisture conditions and a clear policy push toward in-country processing. Seed availability will improve, yet excess crush capacity, export duties on competing oilseeds, and resilient export logistics via Black Sea and Danube ports keep raw seed scarce for exporters. Domestic food demand for sunflower oil is easing as refugees leave the country, shifting the balance toward export-oriented crush. In the very short term, cool, locally frosty weather in southern Ukraine slightly delays field work but does not threaten the generally favorable yield outlook.

📈 Prices & Current Market Tone

Domestic sunflower seed prices in Ukraine have trended upward through MY2025/26 as crushers competed for limited raw material. Market assessments highlight a price rally driven by the combination of a low 2025/26 sunflower crop and strong crush demand, while rapeseed exports early in the season further tightened seed availability for processors. Recent spot indications show Ukrainian black sunflower seeds around EUR 0.58/kg FOB Odesa and roughly EUR 0.66/kg FCA inland, reflecting firm basis levels and steady buying interest from crushers and nearby exporters.

Sunflower kernels and meal prices are also supported: sunflower meal in Odesa trades near EUR 0.58/kg FOB, while bakery-grade hulled kernels from Ukraine are offered close to EUR 0.96/kg FCA Dnipro. The flat to slightly higher price pattern over recent weeks, despite easing logistics constraints, underlines that the market remains supply-constrained rather than logistically driven.

🌍 Supply & Demand Outlook

For MY2026/27, Ukrainian sunflower area is forecast at 5.45 million hectares, about 6 percent above the previous estimate and broadly in line with the long-term oilseed area average. Imports of sunflower seeds ahead of planting are higher year on year, partly to compensate for the 2025/26 domestic seed shortfall and partly reflecting stronger demand for planting material. Favourable soil moisture at planting and normal vegetation indices point to yields above the five-year average and close to the strong 2023/24 benchmark.

On this basis, sunflower seed production is projected at 12.8 MMT in 2026/27, up 16 percent from the 11.0 MMT estimated for 2025/26. However, domestic crush is expected to absorb essentially all of this growth: crush is forecast to rise from 11.0 MMT to 12.7 MMT, keeping exports of raw sunflower seed marginal at about 30,000 MT and holding ending stocks very low. With over 80 percent of Ukraine’s sunflower and rapeseed seeds typically destined for the EU, functioning Black Sea and Danube ports ensure that the export channel for oils and meals, rather than seeds, remains the primary outlet.

📊 Fundamentals: Crush, Oils & Meals

Ukraine’s oilseed sector currently operates with excess crush capacity of around 20 MMT per year, leaving roughly one-third idle. The 2025/26 drop in sunflower production shifted the raw-material competition toward soybeans and rapeseed, especially after the introduction of a 10 percent export duty on these two crops in September 2025. This policy effectively channels more beans and seed into domestic plants and increases crush-to-production ratios for rapeseed and soybeans, while sunflower remains structurally short.

For sunflower oil, crush of 11.0 MMT in 2025/26 yields around 4.73 MMT of oil, with exports estimated at 4.5 MMT, roughly 5 percent below the previous year. In 2026/27, crush of 12.7 MMT is projected to lift sunflower oil output to about 5.46 MMT and exports to around 5.0 MMT, a gain of 11 percent. Domestic food consumption of sunflower oil is slowly declining as refugee outflows reduce the resident population, reinforcing Ukraine’s role as an export-focused supplier, especially to the EU and India.

On the meal side, sunflower meal production is expected to rise from about 4.54 MMT in 2025/26 to 5.25 MMT in 2026/27, with exports increasing to roughly 3.0 MMT. Sunflower meal remains the main protein feed in Ukraine due to both abundance and lower prices relative to soybean meal. A widening domestic price spread between soybean and sunflower meal, driven by brisk soybean meal exports to the EU, Türkiye and North Africa, confirms the price-competitiveness of sunflower meal in feed rations.

🌦️ Weather & Planting Conditions

Mid-March 2026 marked the start of planting with adequate surface and sub-surface soil moisture across key sunflower areas, providing a solid base for germination and early growth. Remote sensing indicators such as NDVI are close to long-term averages, signalling no major stress for winter crops and supporting expectations of above-average oilseed yields in 2026/27.

In early April, southern regions around Odesa are experiencing cool, occasionally frosty nights, with daytime highs around 9–12°C and a mix of clouds and light showers over the next three days. While local ground frosts (0 to -3°C at soil surface) may briefly pause fieldwork in low-lying areas, current forecasts do not indicate sustained damaging cold. Overall, the short-term weather outlook remains neutral-to-supportive for sunflower planting progress in Ukraine’s main producing belt.

📆 Policy, Trade Flows & Demand Shifts

Logistical conditions have markedly improved compared with 2022: all major Black Sea ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi) and Danube river ports are operating, enabling cost-efficient shipments of oils and meals. Although several EU member states (Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland) maintain unilateral bans on Ukrainian oilseed imports, these measures are managed via an export licence system and do not impede flows to other EU destinations. At the EU level, oilseeds remain outside the main import quota constraints on Ukrainian farm products.

Looking ahead, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is expected to become a critical compliance hurdle for Ukrainian oilseeds and products by late 2026, particularly for soy. For sunflower, the main near-term demand shift is domestic rather than regulatory: food consumption of vegetable oils is falling as refugees continue to leave, reducing internal demand but freeing additional volumes for export. In parallel, high crude oil and nitrogen fertilizer prices could encourage a modest shift from grains into oilseeds in 2026/27, reinforcing the recovery in sunflower area.

💹 Trading Outlook & Strategy Pointers

• Seeds: With 2026/27 production set to rebound yet crush demand and low stocks keeping seeds tight, prices for Ukrainian black sunflower seeds are likely to stay firm to slightly supported into the new marketing year. Forward sales at current EUR 0.58–0.66/kg levels look reasonable for risk-averse growers, especially where input costs have risen.
• Sunflower oil: The expected 11 percent export growth in 2026/27, coupled with recovering Ukrainian supply, may cap further sharp upside in FOB oil prices, but structural import demand from the EU and India should provide a solid floor. Crushers can prioritise margin capture via oil exports while using meal as a competitive feed ingredient domestically and in non-EU markets.
• Sunflower meal: Rising output and strong competitiveness versus soybean meal suggest continued robust demand from both domestic feeders and external buyers such as China. Importers seeking protein coverage may use any seasonal weakness around harvest to extend coverage, while Ukrainian sellers can leverage logistics flexibility between Black Sea and Danube routes.

📍 3‑Day Price Indication & Short-Term Direction

Product	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	3‑Day Bias
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	Odesa, FOB	0.58	Slightly firm on crusher demand, weather-neutral
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	Odesa & Kyiv, FCA	0.66	Stable to firm; strong nearby crushing interest
Sunflower meal (kernels, bulk)	Odesa, FOB	0.58	Stable; supported by export enquiries and feed demand

Over the next three days, cool but mostly benign weather and unchanged policy settings suggest limited immediate drivers for price reversal. Barring logistical disruptions, the short-term tone for Ukraine’s sunflower complex remains broadly firm, with crushers and exporters both keen to secure supplies.