Cashew Kernels Edge Softer in India & EU While Vietnam Holds Firm

Cashew kernel prices are broadly steady to slightly softer across key origins, with Vietnam WW320 holding flat and mild declines in India and the Netherlands driven by cautious demand rather than supply relief. Tight raw nut availability from West Africa and high temperatures in Asian origins continue to underpin a firm floor under kernel values.

The global cashew complex remains fundamentally tight as West Africa’s 2026 raw cashew crop tracks well below last year, restricting raw nut availability even as demand from some destinations softens. India is entering a hotter-than-normal pre-monsoon period, raising weather risk for orchards, while Vietnam processors face competing pressures from constrained raw nut supply and disrupted trade routes. In Europe, including the Netherlands, demand is steady but price-sensitive, with buyers taking advantage of slightly lower nearby offers yet reluctant to build large stocks. Overall, prices look range-bound with a bullish bias into late April.

📈 Prices & Short-Term Moves

All prices converted to EUR using ~1.00 USD = 0.92 EUR and rounded.

Region	Grade / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	WoW Change	Comment
Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB)	WW320	~6.30	Stable	Flat week-on-week; trade sources cite firm floor due to tight RCN, despite weaker Middle East demand.
Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB)	WW240	~7.13	Stable	Premium over WW320 broadly unchanged as buyers favour standard grades.
India (New Delhi, FOB)	W320 non-organic	~6.35	▼ ~0.7%	Marginal easing aligned with softer domestic kernel buying and tracking Vietnam.
India (New Delhi, FOB)	W240 non-organic	~6.82	▼ ~0.7%	Premium grades still command strong differentials but have softened slightly.
Netherlands (Dordrecht, FCA)	WW320	~4.52	▼ ~1%	EU spot values edge lower as buyers resist higher replacement costs, despite upstream firmness.
Netherlands (Dordrecht, FCA)	FS (splits/pieces)	~3.33	▼ ~1.5%	Industrial demand cautious; users comfortable with existing cover.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

West African crop estimates indicate the 2026 raw cashew nut harvest could be up to 250,000 tonnes below last year, materially tightening global RCN availability and helping keep Vietnam and other kernel origins on a firm footing. This structural tightness limits downside for kernels even as some destination markets turn more price-sensitive.

Vietnam remains the dominant global kernel shipper, supplying over half of world exports, with the US, China and the Netherlands among its largest outlets. Recent disruptions to shipping routes via the Middle East have temporarily slowed flows to Gulf buyers, forcing Vietnamese processors to consider re-directing volumes to Europe and North America. This reinforces competition among origins into EU hubs such as the Netherlands but has not yet translated into major price cuts.

In India, official dashboards show structurally high kernel prices and solid domestic consumption, even as recent weeks bring slightly softer offers. Imports of raw nuts remain substantial, underlining ongoing dependence on African supply. In Europe, broader nut demand is steady and supported by health trends, with Germany and the Netherlands key redistribution centres. Buyers there are opportunistically extending coverage on small dips but remain cautious about committing far forward amid wider macro uncertainty.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook (IN, VN, NL)

India (IN): Southern and coastal cashew regions such as Karnataka are facing a heightened drought narrative and elevated temperatures this pre-monsoon season, prompting policymakers to discuss shifting some acreage to shorter-duration crops. The next three days around coastal Karnataka (e.g. Mangaluru) look hot and mostly dry with highs near 31–32°C and only isolated thunderstorms, offering little short-term moisture relief. For existing orchards, sustained heat adds stress but also supports uninterrupted harvest and post-harvest drying.

Vietnam (VN): In key cashew provinces such as Binh Phuoc, the coming three days are forecast very hot and dry, with daytime highs close to 37–38°C and hazy sun. This is broadly favourable for late harvest and kernel processing but, combined with already tight imported RCN supply, may further constrain quality if heat persists without timely rains.

Netherlands (NL): For EU logistics hubs (e.g. Rotterdam area), the three-day outlook is cool and cloudy with some light rain and temperatures around 14–17°C. Weather poses no direct risk to kernels but may modestly affect port operations and trucking schedules when rain peaks; overall, storage and distribution conditions remain benign.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• RCN tightness vs. demand softness: The short West African crop and limited farmer selling underpin raw nut prices, feeding through into firm kernel replacement costs, even as some Middle Eastern and Asian buyers cut back purchases.
• Trade route disruptions: Tensions and partial closures along key routes to the Middle East have disrupted Vietnam’s usual shipment patterns, but processors are increasingly pivoting toward Europe and North America, which could gradually increase availability in EU hubs like the Netherlands.
• Macro and consumer trends: While broader agri-exports from Vietnam face headwinds, cashew kernels retain a reputation for quality and stable supply, supporting ongoing shelf presence in Middle Eastern and European retail chains.
• Indian policy and weather risk: Emerging concerns about pre-monsoon heat and drought risk in parts of India highlight growing climate sensitivity of orchard crops, but any impact on 2026–27 cashew output will depend on the main monsoon performance from June onward.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3-Day Price Bias

• Vietnam (FOB, Hanoi, WW320/WW240): With RCN supply tight and current WW320 offers stable, downside appears limited in the very short term. Bias: sideways to slightly firmer over the next three days as sellers resist discounts and focus on higher-value destinations.
• India (FOB, New Delhi, W320/W240): Recent marginal softening could attract domestic and export buyers to lock limited additional coverage. Bias: sideways, with potential for a mild rebound if West African supply concerns intensify.
• Netherlands (FCA, Dordrecht, WW320 & pieces): EU spot offers have eased slightly; with potential re-routing of Vietnamese kernels to Europe, buyers may see continued competitive pricing in the near term. Bias: slightly softer to sideways, though any further drop is capped by firm origin replacement costs.

🔎 Actionable Pointers

• Roasters & packers (EU, NL hub): Use current slight dip in Dordrecht WW320 and pieces to extend coverage into late Q2 2026, but avoid over-buying given trade-flow uncertainty.
• Importers (India): Consider layering purchases of standard grades (W320) at current slightly lower levels, with an eye on further West African crop revisions and domestic demand post-summer.
• Vietnamese processors: Maintain offer discipline on premium grades; selectively target EU and North American buyers to offset weaker Middle East demand while protecting margins against expensive RCN.

📍 3-Day Regional Directional View (EUR Terms)

• IN (New Delhi, FOB kernels): Prices expected to trade in a narrow band with a stable bias; only small, negotiation-driven moves likely.
• VN (Hanoi, FOB kernels): Market likely to remain firm to slightly firmer as RCN tightness dominates.
• NL (Dordrecht, FCA kernels): Spot offers may edge marginally lower on competition between origins, but significant declines are unlikely in the next three days.