Vietnam Dried Guava Prices Hold Steady as Hot Weather Sets In

Vietnamese FOB dried guava prices in Hanoi are holding flat at about EUR 4.90–5.30/kg, with no meaningful moves over the past month despite hot weather in northern Vietnam and softer overall fruit-and-vegetable trade flows.

Vietnam’s dried guava market currently trades in a narrow range, supported by firm domestic fresh guava prices but capped by cautious overseas demand after a sharp February slowdown in Vietnam’s broader fruit-and-vegetable exports. Persistent hot, hazy conditions around Hanoi are not yet threatening guava orchards but will need monitoring if heat persists into flowering. For now, processors report comfortable raw-material availability, while export buyers show selective interest within a tight price band.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

Indicative FOB Hanoi prices for Vietnamese dried guava (conventional, white flesh) are assessed around EUR 4.90–5.30/kg, in line with recent Vietnamese supplier offers of USD 5–6/kg converted at roughly 1.10 USD/EUR. Over the past four weeks, export offers have shown minimal adjustment, reflecting a balance between steady processing costs and stable fresh-fruit input prices in major guava-growing areas such as Hai Phong’s Ha Nam commune.

While other Vietnamese agri-commodities like pepper and durian have seen more visible price volatility, dried guava remains a niche but stable segment within the broader dried-fruit basket. Processors note that current levels are sufficient to cover rising labor and energy costs but leave limited room for aggressive discounting to chase volume.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

On the supply side, Vietnam’s fresh guava sector continues to benefit from year-round harvest patterns and ongoing brand-building efforts in key guava regions, supporting consistent inflows of raw fruit into drying facilities. Dried guava also rides on the structural expansion of Vietnam’s fruit-and-vegetable export industry, which aims for around EUR 7.3 billion equivalent in export revenue in 2025, even if guava remains a minor share compared with durian or mango.

Demand-wise, global dried-fruit buyers are cautiously replenishing stocks, with Vietnamese Customs data showing February 2026 fruit-and-vegetable exports down about 45–48% month-on-month after a strong January, indicating short-term destocking in some markets. However, processors supplying mixed dried-fruit portfolios report resilient inquiries from China, regional Asian markets, and health-oriented segments (e.g. guava leaf tea and dried tropical mixes), which helps underpin baseline demand for dried guava products.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather in VN

In northern Vietnam, including Hanoi and surrounding guava-growing provinces, the short-term outlook points to very hot, hazy conditions: daytime highs around 34–39°C and warm nights near 26–27°C over the next three days. Such heat supports rapid fruit development and drying conditions but could stress trees if prolonged, particularly where irrigation is limited. For now, no major weather disruptions or storm systems are flagged for the immediate period.

Nationally, 2026 guidance from Vietnamese commodity analysts highlights “generally favorable conditions” for fruit production, aligning with the absence of major drought or flooding events in key guava belts so far this season. Combined with prior investments in processing capacity for dried fruits, this suggests that supply-side risks for dried guava are modest in the near term, with logistics and external demand posing greater uncertainty.

📆 Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Short-term bias: Sideways. With stable raw guava availability and no acute weather shock in northern Vietnam, dried guava prices are likely to remain within the current EUR 4.90–5.30/kg FOB Hanoi band over the coming week.
• For buyers: Consider layering in spot and short forward coverage while prices are stable, focusing on suppliers with diversified dried-fruit portfolios and strong quality controls to mitigate any sudden freight or energy cost increases.
• For sellers/processors: Maintain offer discipline; avoid undercutting within the tight range and prioritize higher-margin, value-added formats (e.g. soft-dried guava snacks or blended mixes) where demand is more resilient.
• Key risks to watch: A sharper-than-expected rebound in global dried-fruit demand (particularly from China and the EU), any early onset of heat stress or storms in northern Vietnam, and currency shifts affecting USD/EUR competitiveness.

📍 3-Day Regional Price Indication (FOB, VN)

Product	Location / Term	12 Apr 2026	13 Apr 2026	14 Apr 2026	Trend
Dried guava (conventional, white)	Hanoi, FOB	EUR 5.25/kg	EUR 5.25/kg	EUR 5.25/kg	Stable ↔