Rice Prices Ease in India, Hold Firm in Vietnam as FOB Spreads Narrow

Indian and Vietnamese rice export prices are diverging mildly this week, with a soft correction in India contrasting with steady, geopolitically supported levels in Vietnam. Margins for FOB New Delhi exporters have compressed, while FOB Hanoi offers remain competitive but resilient.

Export markets are adjusting to stronger freight and financing costs linked to Middle East tensions, even as nearby physical demand from Asia and the Middle East stays solid. India’s heat‑stressed pre‑kharif period and Vietnam’s stable Mekong Delta conditions are not yet threatening supply, but they limit downside. For now, buyers see modest dips in Indian basmati and non‑basmati as an opportunity, while Vietnamese 5% and fragrant grades trade sideways in a tight band.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices converted to EUR/tonne (approx. 1 USD = 0.93 EUR).

Origin	Type (FOB)	Latest Price (EUR/t)	1‑wk Change
India – New Delhi	Basmati 1121 steam	~734	≈‑2.5%
India – New Delhi	PR11 steam (non‑basmati)	~381	≈‑2.5%
India – New Delhi	Golden sella	~735	≈‑2.2%
Vietnam – Hanoi	5% long white	~346	≈‑4–5% vs late March
Vietnam – Hanoi	Jasmine	~363	≈‑4–5% vs late March

Benchmark references from recent trade indicate Indian 5% broken white at about 338–344 USD/t and parboiled at 344–350 USD/t, while Vietnam 5% broken is quoted 375–380 USD/t, broadly unchanged week‑on‑week.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

India’s export pipeline remains active despite lingering payment and logistics frictions around Iran and the wider Middle East, but the immediate shock from stuck basmati cargos has already been partly priced in earlier in the year. Buyers in Africa and South Asia are returning selectively to Indian non‑basmati and parboiled grades as recent corrections have improved relative value against Thai and Vietnamese origins.

Vietnam’s export pace is firm but slightly softer year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, with shipments down around 1–2% as the Philippines pauses some imports to protect domestic prices. Nonetheless, stable offers for 5% broken at 375–380 USD/t signal that exporters are not under pressure to discount, helped by ongoing demand from Africa and the Middle East and by higher freight and insurance costs linked to geopolitical tensions.

☀️ Weather & Crop Conditions

In India, the pre‑monsoon period is being marked by an unusually early and intense heat build‑up, with temperatures in parts of north and central India already reaching levels more typical of late April. While the main kharif rice crop is not yet at risk, sustained heatwaves through May could stress nurseries and increase irrigation demand, keeping production risk and input costs (power, water) on the radar and limiting further downside in new‑crop price expectations.

Vietnam’s key Mekong Delta rice belt is in its typical dry‑season to early wet‑season transition, with no acute drought or salinity shock reported in the last few days. Recent history shows the region’s vulnerability to dry‑season water shortages and saltwater intrusion, but current conditions and stable export quotes suggest no major weather‑driven supply disruption for the near term.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Currency & freight: A firmer Indian rupee and higher regional freight and insurance costs are supporting nominal FOB values, especially for parboiled grades, even as physical bids resist further increases.
• Geopolitical risk: Middle East tensions are raising shipping and fertilizer costs across Asia, underpinning offer ideas in Vietnam and Thailand and indirectly placing a floor under Indian prices.
• Import demand: Bangladesh, the Philippines and parts of Africa remain structurally active buyers of competitively priced non‑basmati and parboiled rice, reinforcing demand for Indian and Vietnamese origins into MY 2026/27.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• India – FOB New Delhi (basmati & parboiled): Mildly bearish to sideways over the next 3 days, with further downside limited by firm freight, heat‑driven production risk premiums and still‑solid import demand from South Asia and the Middle East.
• India – FOB New Delhi (low‑grade non‑basmati): Sideways; recent corrections have restored competitiveness, but stronger rupee and logistics costs cap the scope for significant further declines.
• Vietnam – FOB Hanoi (5% broken & fragrant): Sideways to slightly firmer bias, supported by stable export prices, geopolitical cost pressures and no immediate supply shock from weather.

🎯 Tactical Recommendations

• Importers in Africa & South Asia: Use current Indian price softness to extend coverage modestly for Q2 shipments, prioritising PR11/parboiled where EUR‑denominated FOBs are most attractive versus Vietnam.
• Industrial users & millers in the Middle East: Diversify between India and Vietnam to hedge against further freight or payment disruptions linked to regional tensions.
• Exporters in India & Vietnam: Avoid deep discounts; focus on nearby execution and basis trading, as macro and freight costs are likely to keep a floor under FOB values in the short term.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional, EUR/tonne)

• India – New Delhi FOB basmati/parboiled: ~730–750 EUR/t, bias: stable to slightly lower.
• India – New Delhi FOB non‑basmati 5%/PR grades: ~370–395 EUR/t, bias: stable.
• Vietnam – Hanoi FOB 5% broken long white: ~340–355 EUR/t, bias: stable to slightly higher.
• Vietnam – Hanoi FOB Jasmine & premium fragrant: ~360–390 EUR/t, bias: stable.