Indian cashew kernel prices in New Delhi have softened sharply week‑on‑week, led by premium whole grades, while global demand signals from Vietnam and key import markets remain broadly supportive. Very hot weather in North India is not yet disrupting arrivals, but margin pressure on processors is increasing, limiting further downside in the short term.
Indian domestic and export markets are entering the summer demand lull with noticeably weaker kernel quotes, especially for W240–W450 grades, even as Vietnam positions for another strong export year on the back of steady Chinese and Middle Eastern buying. Recent reports highlight raw nut supply tensions in Africa and Vietnam’s reliance on imported raw material, but these have not yet translated into higher kernel offers in India. Instead, buyers are testing lower levels, while processors turn more selective on new purchases and focus on quality differentiation.
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📈 Prices & Spreads
All prices below are indicative, converted to EUR at ≈1 USD = 0.92 EUR for comparison.
| Origin / Location | Grade | Term | Latest price (€/kg) | WoW change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India – New Delhi | W240 (brownish white) | FCA | ≈€6.90 | ▼ ~25% |
| India – New Delhi | W320 | FCA | ≈€6.80 | ▼ ~14% |
| India – New Delhi | W450 | FCA | ≈€5.90 | ▼ ~17% |
| India – New Delhi | LWP | FCA | ≈€4.70 | ▼ ~6% |
| India – New Delhi | SWP | FCA | ≈€5.00 | ▼ ~2% |
| Vietnam – kernel export indications | W320 | FOB | ≈€6.40–7.00 | Stable to firm |
Recent international indications show Vietnam’s export offers for W240 around €6.75–7.15/kg and W320 near €6.30–6.90/kg, broadly steady on the month despite raw nut supply concerns in West Africa and Southeast Asia. This leaves Indian New Delhi FCA prices modestly discounted versus typical Vietnamese FOB benchmarks, especially after this week’s abrupt corrections in whole grades.
🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows
Vietnam is entering 2026 with strong momentum, targeting about 800,000 tonnes of kernel exports and roughly €4.6–4.7 billion in turnover, helped by diversified demand in China, the EU and the Middle East. However, processors there flag tightening raw nut availability, as some African origins impose export restrictions or minimum prices, pushing up input costs and raising the risk of later‑season kernel price firmness.
India remains a major grower and processor with strong structural domestic demand, particularly from confectionery, snack and gifting channels, which underpins medium‑term consumption growth. For now, local buyers are cautious after recent highs, and the sharp week‑on‑week easing in New Delhi kernels suggests a reset rather than a collapse, as export parity versus Vietnam still looks competitive. The combination of firm end‑user demand globally and more expensive raw nuts argues against a prolonged deep discount phase.
📊 Fundamentals & Weather (India Focus)
Fundamentally, the global market is balancing steady demand with uneven raw cashew crops. A recent update notes concerns over a weaker African crop and weather‑related risks to the second crop in Vietnam and Cambodia, which could tighten kernel availability later in the year if realized. For now, export data from Vietnam for early 2026 show healthy shipment volumes and relatively high average kernel export prices, confirming that downstream demand has not materially softened.
In India’s key trading hub of New Delhi, the next three days (18–20 April 2026) are forecast to be very hot and hazy, with daytime highs around 40–41°C and warm nights above 24–26°C. Such heat can raise logistics and storage risks but typically does not impact standing cashew crops directly, which are concentrated in coastal states. However, sustained high temperatures can slow mandi activity during peak hours, reinforcing the current buyers’ market and encouraging further negotiation on kernel lots already in warehouses.
📆 Short-Term Outlook (Next 3 Days, Region: IN)
Given the sharp recent declines in Indian kernel quotes and still‑firm international reference prices, near‑term downside in New Delhi is seen as limited, barring a sudden deterioration in global demand. Elevated raw nut replacement costs and strong domestic usage are likely to cap further aggressive discounts, especially for premium whole grades.
- India – New Delhi W240 FCA (€/kg): Bias sideways to slightly firmer around €6.80–7.00 over the next 3 days, as sellers resist further cuts.
- India – New Delhi W320 FCA (€/kg): Expected to trade in a narrow €6.60–6.90 band, with selective bargain buying emerging from exporters.
- India – New Delhi LWP/SWP FCA (€/kg): Likely to stay soft but stable around €4.60–5.00, reflecting adequate supply and price‑sensitive demand from processors and bakers.
💡 Trading Recommendations
- Kernel buyers (EU/Asia): Use the current dip in Indian W240/W320 to lock in part of Q2–Q3 coverage, while keeping some flexibility in case supply shocks from Africa later lift global offers.
- Indian processors: Avoid aggressive discounting below replacement cost; prioritize quality premiums and grading differentials to defend margins in a market that still shows solid end‑user demand.
- Speculative participants: The sharp correction in New Delhi suggests limited near‑term downside; bias towards cautiously long positions in whole grades, hedged via diversified origin exposure (India/Vietnam).
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