Vietnam dried guava prices at FOB Hanoi remain flat week‑on‑week, with stable raw fruit availability and no immediate weather or logistics shocks, keeping nearby offers steady in EUR terms. Processed fruit exports stay broadly firm in value, but softer overall fruit-and-vegetable shipments in early 2026 limit aggressive upside for niche dried guava.
Vietnam’s fruit-and-vegetable complex is entering Q2 2026 with robust medium‑term export growth but a more cautious short‑term tone after total fruit and veg exports dropped around 45% m/m in February 2026, reflecting seasonality and softer Chinese demand. Against this backdrop, processed and dried products benefit from more stable contract demand, while wholesale fresh guava prices in Vietnam currently range roughly EUR 1.55–2.78/kg equivalent, leaving comfortable margins for value‑added drying at current FOB levels.
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📈 Prices & Spreads
• Current benchmark: dried guava, conventional, FOB Hanoi is assessed at approximately EUR 4.90/kg, unchanged versus the past four weeks (converted from stable USD indications).
• Fresh guava wholesale prices in Vietnam are indicated around EUR 1.55–2.78/kg, suggesting steady but not excessive raw material costs for processors.
• Compared with other Vietnamese dried fruit, dried guava trades at a discount to dried jackfruit (around EUR 5.80/kg FOB Hanoi as of mid‑March 2026), preserving a value segment positioning for buyers seeking diversification.
| Product | Origin | Term | Indicative price (EUR/kg) | Trend vs 4 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dried guava, conventional | Vietnam (Hanoi) | FOB | 4.90 | Stable |
| Dried jackfruit, conventional | Vietnam (Hanoi) | FOB | 5.80 | Stable |
🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Context
• Vietnam’s broader fruit-and-vegetable exports surpassed USD 7 billion in the first 10 months of 2025 and continued to grow into late 2025, underscoring structurally strong external demand for both fresh and processed fruits.
• However, official customs data show a sharp m/m decline in total fruit-and-vegetable exports in February 2026 (about –45% vs January), driven mainly by fresh categories and weaker flows to China. Dried guava, as a processed niche item often sold through contracts, appears insulated from the worst of this volatility but does face slightly more cautious spot buying.
• Production fundamentals remain solid: combined mango–mangosteen–guava output in Vietnam reached roughly 1.55 million tonnes in 2024, providing ample raw material base for processors. Trade policy signals are supportive, with China and Vietnam recently agreeing to facilitate agricultural trade and create faster clearance channels for fruits at border gates, which should help maintain export fluidity during peak seasons.
📊 Fundamentals & Weather
• Weather: Hanoi and the broader Red River Delta are currently seeing a spell of thunderstorms and cooler air, with showers around April 17–19 followed by intermittent sunshine and more cloud cover. These conditions are typical for mid‑April and do not yet pose a material threat to guava orchards or drying operations, though humidity can briefly affect sun‑drying efficiency.
• The main medium‑term risk remains a potentially active 2026 typhoon season, which last year showed capacity to disrupt fruit supply and logistics across northern Vietnam; this is being watched closely by dried-fruit traders. For now, processing capacity and logistics around Hanoi are operating normally, and there are no reported bottlenecks specific to guava.
• Input costs: recent customs data highlight a strong rebound in fertilizer imports in March 2026 (over +80% m/m), which could presage somewhat firmer input costs later in the year but also signal better availability for growers. No immediate squeeze on margins is visible at current dried guava price levels.
📆 Short-Term Outlook (3 Days, VN Focus)
Weather (Hanoi / Northern Vietnam, next 3 days):
• Scattered thunderstorms and showers, especially in the mornings, with moderate temperatures in the low‑ to mid‑20s°C.
• Short, intense rains may temporarily slow handling and drying, but no large‑scale disruption to processing or transport is expected.
3‑Day Price Indication – Dried Guava (EUR/kg, FOB)
| Date | Location | Indicative price (EUR/kg) | Direction | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Hanoi, VN | 4.90 | Stable | Spot and nearby enquiries balanced; no major weather/logistics issues. |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Hanoi, VN | 4.90 | Stable | Processors report normal operations; buyers in wait‑and‑see mode after Feb export dip. |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Hanoi, VN | 4.90 | Stable | Stable raw fruit supply; no catalyst for immediate price move. |
📌 Trading Outlook & Strategy
- Importers / Buyers: Current flat prices and solid raw material availability favour securing nearby to medium‑term coverage, especially for regular retail and food‑service programs, while avoiding heavy forward commitments beyond the 2026 typhoon risk window.
- Exporters / Processors: Maintain offer discipline around current levels; only concede small discounts for volume or mixed‑load business, as margins versus fresh guava and competing dried fruits remain acceptable.
- Traders: Market is range‑bound in the very short term; focus on arbitrage versus higher‑priced dried fruits (e.g., jackfruit, mango) and on logistics optimization rather than speculative stock‑building.
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