Rice market softens: CBOT stable, India–Vietnam FOB under mild pressure

Global rice prices are drifting slightly lower with CBOT futures broadly stable and Asian FOB offers easing, as comfortable exportable supplies meet still-solid but less frantic import demand.

After recent volatility driven by freight and geopolitical risks, the rice market is consolidating: CBOT rough rice is rangebound around the low USD 11/cwt area for nearby contracts, while Indian and Vietnamese export quotations have edged down over the past three weeks. Ample 2025/26 harvests in Asia and some demand rationing after last year’s highs are weighing mildly on prices, even as logistics around the Middle East remain a key swing factor. In this environment, buyers regain some bargaining power, but upside risk persists if weather or freight costs flare up again.

📈 Prices & Futures

CBOT rough rice futures show a flat to slightly easier curve. The May 2026 contract last traded at USD 10.99/cwt, unchanged on the day, while July 2026 slipped to USD 11.29/cwt (-0.22%). Further out, November 2026 is around USD 11.95/cwt and March–May 2027 near USD 12.40–12.50/cwt, indicating only a modest carry and no strong bullish term-structure signal.

Exchange data also point to subdued activity: daily volumes per 2026 contract are very thin (often a single-digit number of lots), even as aggregate open interest on the CBOT rice contract remains around 12,500–12,800 lots, suggesting that most participation is positioned further along the strip or in spread structures.

📊 Export FOB benchmarks (converted to EUR)

The latest quoted FOB offers (18 April 2026) for key origins show a mild but broad-based softening compared with late March. Assuming ~1.07 EUR/USD for rough conversion, current spot indications per kg are:

Origin	Type	Location / Term	Current price (EUR/kg)	Change vs. late March (EUR/kg)
India	All golden, sella	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 0.88	↓ from 0.93
India	PR11 steam	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 0.39	↓ from 0.43
India	1121 steam	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 0.77	↓ from 0.83
India	1509 steam	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 0.72	↓ from 0.78
Vietnam	Long white 5%	Hanoi, FOB	≈ 0.40	↓ from 0.43
Vietnam	Jasmine	Hanoi, FOB	≈ 0.42	↓ from 0.45
Vietnam	Japonica	Hanoi, FOB	≈ 0.51	↓ from 0.54

This stepwise weakening since late March confirms that physical export offers are under light downward pressure, broadly aligned with reports of lower average Vietnamese export prices versus last year and softer global rice benchmarks.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Global fundamentals are currently comfortable. Vietnam exported just over 8 million tonnes of rice in 2025, remaining one of the top suppliers despite a year-on-year decline in value, and is projected to ship about 7.7–7.8 million tonnes in 2026, with exports front‑loaded into the first half of the year. This aligns with the availability signaled by stable to lower Hanoi FOB prices across most varieties.

In India, export volumes have recently been constrained by geopolitical disruptions in West Asia, which depressed March 2026 rice exports and weighed on basmati prices. However, the recent US–Iran ceasefire and some normalization of shipping routes have triggered a partial rebound in wholesale prices and export inquiries, especially for higher grades, underlining how quickly sentiment can shift with freight and insurance costs.

On the demand side, many key importers—including the Philippines, China, Bangladesh and African buyers—are opportunistically covering nearby needs while avoiding aggressive forward bookings after last year’s price spikes. FAO and regional analysts still see global rice prices in 2026 below the 2024 peaks, suggesting that improved availability and policy adjustments have partly normalized the market, even if spot values have ticked higher in recent weeks from their lows.

⛅ Weather & Policy Watch

Weather risks are seasonally moderate but need close watching. In major Asian producers, current reports point to generally favorable conditions and expectations for solid 2026 harvests, with Vietnam’s production projected in the high‑30‑million‑tonne range and stable domestic consumption, leaving a sizeable exportable surplus. The ongoing 2025–26 southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season, which formally ends by late April, has so far not generated major reported damage to core rice hotspots, but it remains a background risk for coastal logistics.

On the policy side, the broader environment is slowly turning more supportive for trade flows. The newly concluded India–EU free trade agreement and indications that India is relaxing some export rules or inspection requirements for European destinations point to a more flexible stance toward premium segments like basmati, which could gradually underpin FOB values if demand from Europe accelerates. At the same time, legacy export restrictions in a few smaller origins (e.g. Egypt) continue to cap alternative supplies, adding a mild floor to world prices.

📌 Trading Outlook (next 2–4 weeks)

• Flat-to-soft bias in Asia: With CBOT futures steady and Indian/Vietnamese FOB offers drifting lower, the short‑term directional bias remains slightly bearish, barring a sudden weather or freight shock.
• Buying strategy: Importers with Q2–Q3 2026 needs may use current dips in PR11/long‑grain white and 1121/1509 steam to lock in partial coverage, keeping some volume open in case of further easing.
• Selling/hedging: Exporters and millers can consider light hedging on CBOT or via forward contracts for late‑2026 shipments, as the forward curve offers only a modest carry and downside from here looks limited without a major demand shock.
• Risk focus: Monitor Middle East geopolitics, freight rates through the Red Sea and monsoon developments in South Asia; any renewed disruption could quickly tighten spreads between Asian FOB and CBOT values.

📆 3‑Day Directional Price Indication

• CBOT rough rice (nearby, USD/cwt, ≈ EUR equivalent): Sideways in a tight range around current levels; low liquidity limits large moves absent external shocks.
• India FOB (New Delhi, EUR/kg): Slightly soft to stable; recent declines in basmati and parboiled are likely to pause, with possible minor rebounds in premium grades if export bookings pick up.
• Vietnam FOB (Hanoi, EUR/kg): Mostly stable with a mild downward bias for 5% white and some fragrant varieties, reflecting comfortable export pipelines and competitive pressure from other Asian origins.