Lentil Market Steady as Indian Green Gram Signals Comfortable Pulse Supply

India’s green gram market is sending a clear message of structural supply comfort, keeping a lid on pulse complex upside and underpinning a broadly steady global lentil price environment for the next few weeks.

Despite firmer tones in some other pulses, Indian green gram (moong) is largely flat across major hubs as large government buffer stocks, ongoing rabi arrivals and strictly need-based mill buying cap rallies. This soft, well-supplied backdrop contrasts with pockets of tightness in black gram and rabi lentils, and helps explain why Canadian and Chinese export offers for lentils have held broadly sideways in recent weeks. For European and Asian buyers, the current window favors securing partial forward coverage rather than expecting a sharp near‑term price break.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

Indian green gram markets traded mostly sideways in the latest session, even as other pulses showed strength. Wholesale green gram in key Indian centers remains 18–20% below the Minimum Support Price of about EUR 86–88 per quintal (approximate conversion), underscoring persistent supply comfort and the absence of a speculative bid. Dal mills continue to buy hand-to-mouth, avoiding inventory buildup and reinforcing the stable tone.

In the international lentil trade, recent Canadian FOB offers for red and green types have been broadly unchanged over the last three weeks, while Chinese small green lentils firmed modestly from late March into mid‑April before stabilising. Overall, global lentil prices are tracking a sideways to slightly firm profile, with upside checked by comfortable stocks yet supported by higher costs in some competing pulses.

Origin / Product	Specification	Location & Terms	Current Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Change (EUR/kg)	Trend
Canada – Lentils dried	Red football	Ottawa, FOB	≈ 2.60	0.00	Sideways
Canada – Lentils dried	Laird, Green	Ottawa, FOB	≈ 1.77	0.00	Sideways
Canada – Lentils dried	Eston Green	Ottawa, FOB	≈ 1.67	0.00	Sideways
China – Lentils dried	Small green, conv.	Beijing, FOB	≈ 1.15	+0.01 (vs early Apr)	Stabilising
China – Lentils dried	Small green, organic	Beijing, FOB	≈ 1.23	-0.02 (vs early Apr)	Soft / stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

The dominant factor on the pulse side is India’s sizeable government buffer pool of green gram, the largest among all pulses. Procurement at the MSP continues but is limited versus robust rabi arrivals, keeping open-market prices well below the support level and reinforcing the signal of oversupply rather than shortage. Expanded summer sowing of green gram compared with last year, combined with favourable growing weather so far, points to continued heavy arrivals into the early summer period.

Harvest of the summer green gram crop in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat is expected to begin in late May, bringing a new supply wave within four to six weeks. Against this backdrop, dal mills deliberately avoid speculative inventory, buying only to meet near‑term demand. On the lentil side, Canada remains the reference exporter; while there is pressure from ample carryover and a difficult demand situation, planting intentions suggest a mid-single-digit area decline in 2026/27, limiting medium‑term downside and encouraging exporters to keep offers steady rather than cutting aggressively.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Pulse Regions

Indian meteorological agencies anticipate above-normal heatwave days across parts of Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra from April to June, which could stress some summer pulse crops if heat intensifies during flowering. However, pre-monsoon rainfall activity is also forecast to pick up episodically across central and western India in late April and early May, offering intermittent moisture relief.

For green gram, current field reports still point to generally favourable conditions, and there is no strong evidence yet of widespread weather-driven yield losses. The balance of risks suggests some weather volatility but not enough at this stage to offset India’s large starting stocks and expanded area, so the overall supply cushion for pulses — and by extension lentils — remains comfortable in the short term.

📊 Fundamentals & Price Implications

The fundamental picture for green gram is one of structural oversupply: prices sitting well below MSP, large state-held stocks, and additional summer crop volumes approaching. This suppresses the risk of a broad-based pulse rally spilling over into lentils during the next two to four weeks. Even where other pulses such as black gram are showing firmness, the presence of a well-supplied green gram segment acts as a cap on aggregate pulse inflation and reduces substitution-driven demand for lentils.

For the lentil complex, Canadian and Chinese exporters are facing a difficult demand environment, with buyers resisting higher offers and showing preference for staggered, small-volume coverage. Yet with expected reductions in Canadian area and ongoing logistical and trade frictions, there is also limited appetite to cut prices further. This combination of soft demand but constrained downside supports a narrow trading range in EUR terms for red and green lentils over the coming month.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Importers / Food manufacturers: Use current stability in Canadian and Chinese lentil offers, alongside discounted Indian green gram, to secure 2–4 months of coverage for core red and green lentil needs. Avoid overcommitting far into the 2026/27 season until more is known about Canadian yields and India’s kharif pulse outlook.
• European buyers of moong and lentil products: India’s comfortable green gram position and approaching summer harvest make a sharp price spike unlikely in the next 4–6 weeks. Consider gradual buying on minor dips rather than waiting for a major correction that may not materialise.
• Producers & exporters (Canada/China): With global demand steady but unspectacular and Indian pulses well supplied, focus on flexible contract terms and reliable logistics instead of outright price hikes to protect market share. Opportunistic premium bids may emerge only if weather risks in North America escalate later in the season.

📉 Short-Term Price Direction (Next 3 Days)

• FOB Canada (Ottawa) red lentils, green lentils (EUR): Sideways; offers expected to stay near current levels with very limited volatility.
• FOB China (Beijing) small green lentils (EUR): Sideways to marginally softer; recent modest firming has stalled and buyers are resisting higher replacement costs.
• Indian green gram / moong (domestic, EUR-equivalent): Stable; prices likely to remain well below MSP, with any intraday strength capped by heavy government stocks and ongoing arrivals.