Sunflower Market Steady as SAFEX Firms and Black Sea Prices Hold Range

Sunflower markets are trading in a defined range, with SAFEX futures firming slightly and Black Sea physical prices largely unchanged, while weather risks in Ukraine and the wider Black Sea region keep a mild upward bias in place.

Sunflower seed and kernel prices in Europe and the Black Sea remain broadly stable in late April 2026. SAFEX sunflower contracts for 2026/27 are modestly higher, reflecting cautious optimism on demand and some concern about planting delays in Ukraine and parts of Russia. At the same time, Ukrainian crushers continue to process robust volumes, supporting strong sunflower oil and meal flows, while international sunflower oil values are holding rather than surging. Short‑term, the market looks balanced but sensitive to any further weather or logistics shocks.

📈 Prices & Futures

SAFEX sunflower futures on 23 April 2026 show a slightly firmer curve. The nearby May 2026 contract closed at roughly ZAR 8,720/t, up 0.4% on the day, while July 2026 settled near ZAR 8,909/t. Further out, December 2026 is around ZAR 9,263/t and December 2027 about ZAR 9,290/t, indicating a moderate carry and expectations of adequate supply but no major surplus.

Converted approximately into EUR (assuming 1 EUR ≈ 20 ZAR), the May 2026 SAFEX level equates to roughly EUR 436/t, with December 2026 around EUR 463/t. In the physical Black Sea and European markets, sunflower seed prices cluster between about EUR 0.44–0.65/kg for most standard qualities, with Ukrainian black sunflower seeds (98% purity) quoted near EUR 0.58/kg FOB Odesa and about EUR 0.67/kg FCA Kyiv/Odesa, in line with recent weeks and broader regional benchmarks.

Product	Origin / Location	Term	Price (EUR/kg)
Sunflower seeds, black 98%	UA / Odesa	FOB	0.58
Sunflower seeds, black 98%	UA / Kyiv	FCA	0.67
Sunflower seeds, black 98%	BG / Sofia	FCA	0.44
Sunflower kernels, hulled bakery	UA / Dnipro	FCA	0.96
Sunflower kernels, hulled bakery	BG / Berlin (DE)	FCA	1.08

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather

Fundamentally, the sunflower complex is supported by strong crush activity in Ukraine and stable global edible oil demand. Recent company data show higher sunflower processing and oil sales, confirming good seed availability and functioning export channels despite ongoing logistical and security challenges. At the same time, international sunflower oil values remain broadly steady compared with previous months, pointing to a balanced global oils complex rather than acute shortage.

On the supply side, Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower harvest is estimated around 10.2 million tonnes, slightly below the previous year but still substantial. Looking ahead, early projections for 2026/27 suggest potential for a larger global sunflower seed crop as acreage expands in Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and parts of the EU, provided normal weather conditions prevail. However, recent reports of cold and dry conditions in key Ukrainian sunflower regions, along with a cold snap that could slow sowing of late spring crops, signal some short‑term planting risk.

📊 Fundamentals & Margins

Domestic sunflower seed prices in Ukraine have recently tested high UAH/t levels, tightening crush margins and encouraging a shift in the export mix towards meal where demand is strong, particularly from the EU feed sector. Nonetheless, the stability of international sunflower oil prices and the relatively narrow trading band for seed (roughly EUR 0.56–0.72/kg in the Black Sea) suggest that external markets are not yet facing acute supply stress.

Speculative money in broader oilseed complexes remains cautious, with geopolitical risk in the Black Sea and Middle East keeping a modest risk premium in vegetable oils but not triggering strong directional flows. Against this backdrop, current SAFEX levels and flat‑to‑slightly‑firmer Black Sea seed prices point to a market that is fairly priced around the mid‑range, awaiting clearer signals from weather and 2026/27 planting progress.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Weather models for the Black Sea suggest that earlier cold and dry anomalies in Ukraine could give way to more seasonally normal moisture as the season advances, which would support sunflower establishment from July onwards if realized. Combined with expanding acreage in key producers, this underpins expectations for comfortable 2026/27 supplies, though any prolonged planting delays would quickly inject more bullishness into prices.

• For crushers: Consider locking in a portion of seed needs at current EUR 0.58–0.67/kg levels, as upside risk from weather and logistics appears larger than downside in the very near term.
• For farmers: Use current SAFEX strength in deferred contracts (Dec 2026–Mar 2027) to hedge part of expected production, while retaining some exposure in case adverse weather tightens supplies further.
• For buyers of kernels and oil: With bakery‑grade kernels around EUR 0.96–1.09/kg and oil values stable, stagger purchases over the coming weeks rather than front‑loading, but avoid over‑waiting for a major correction that fundamentals do not currently justify.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• SAFEX Sunflower (ZAR, converted to EUR): Slightly firmer bias as futures reflect ongoing weather and geopolitical risk; expect prices to hold or edge up in the next 3 days.
• Black Sea sunflower seed (FOB/DAP, EUR): Sideways to mildly firmer; indicative band around EUR 0.56–0.72/kg likely to persist barring fresh disruptions.
• EU sunflower kernels (FCA, EUR): Stable; bakery and confection kernels around EUR 0.96–1.22/kg expected to remain rangebound in the very short term, tracking seed and oil rather than leading the market.