This week the exporters had the first inspection of the hazelnut orchards in the western growing areas after the nights with frost. Regionally, there are gardens where one can already see clear damage. However, overall it is not as dramatic as some feared. In a first estimate, the exporters speak of about 15% damage. Whether this is the case or the figure will be even higher can only be said in about two weeks. Then we will see whether the flowers die or develop. In the coming week, the eastern cultivation areas will be inspected. We only expect some damage in the higher and less important growing areas. Here the snow should have protected the bushes well from the frost, and there were also no such low temperatures in the eastern Black Sea region as in the western part. Therefore, the market is clearly tenser than in the previous week, but one cannot speak of panic, especially not on the part of the buyers. Here, the issue has hardly received any attention in recent weeks. However, one should watch the market closely in the next four to six weeks. The frost will undoubtedly impact the harvest forecast for the INC (11 – 13.05.2022). While the first estimate was still very positive, the coming estimate is likely to be significantly lower. The trend will start to emerge in two weeks.
Otherwise, the market remains relatively quiet. Buyers are living off the contracts. Other commodities seem to have priority, especially since the latest information on the coming harvest was not bad news.
Next Saturday, the fasting month of Ramadan begins in Turkey. Then social and also working life will slow down again. However, this is not critical for the hazelnut market this season.
We were able to track a stable Turkish lira this week concerning the exchange rate. Overall, there was little change in the price lists. Initially, the indications rose, but the prices remained relatively constant due to the different levels. This is also because some exporters have deliberately stopped the rise in prices by selling certain stocks. Among other things, this also shows the different interests of the individual market participants.
Bullet Points
- The first inspection of the hazelnut orchards after the frost has taken place. First estimates assume a reduced yield of 40,000 – 50,000 mt. However, it will only be possible to say for sure in about two weeks.
- However, commodity prices remained constant during the week.
- The Turkish lira also remained constant during the week. Thus, little change in the price lists.
- Export and domestic demand remain subdued.