In 2023, the area sown under oil crops in Ukraine can be increased to 8.28 million hectares, which will be 3% higher than the previous year. At the same time, the share of the harvesting area of oilseeds may increase to 98-99% against 95% in 2022. Especially sunflower harvest in Ukraine may increase.
The increase in the area of sowing in 2023 will mainly be due to the reduction of the area under grain in Ukraine as a whole. Another reason is the territories released in 2022.
Thus, in 2023, the potential of sunflower production may increase due to the expansion of the sown area to 5.3-5.4 million hectares (+8-9% compared to the indicator of 2022). At the same time, a significant factor of influence will be the intensity and speed of demining of the de-occupied territories, in particular the Kherson and Kharkiv regions.
Sunflower yield may also increase compared to the previous year, despite a possible reduction in fertilizers, pesticides, etc. Last year the sowing dates were significantly postponed due to the war, difficulties with the delivery of seed material, and rather cool weather conditions.
Thus, analysts predict, sunflower production may increase to 12.3 million tons (+12%) in 2023, but will depend on the further development of military operations, weather conditions and supply of seed material.
Soybeans and rapeseeds
Another oil crop, the production of which may increase in 2023, is soybeans. The area sown under this crop is expected to expand to 1.6-1.7 million hectares (+7% by 2022), which will be due to the high liquidity of the crop, as well as less dependence on imports seeds compared to other oilseeds.
At the same time, rapeseed production in 2023 may decrease compared to the previous year, but not significantly. According to preliminary estimates, the area sown under this crop may amount to about 1.2 million hectares, which is 18% lower than the figure of the previous year. But, taking into account the significant loss of rapeseed acreage in Ukraine in the spring of 2022 as a result of military actions, the collection area in the year may decrease by only 1% compared to the 2022 figure.