Soybean prices yesterday continued to fall under pressure from the difficult global balance in the new season and pessimistic sentiment among traders about the economic prospects of the United States due to the limit of loans to the government until June 1 and possible default of the United States in case of failure of Congress to raise the ceiling of public debt.
Yesterday on the Chicago stock exchange July futures for soybeans fell another 2.7% to 501,2 $/t (-8.9% for the month), November – by 2% to 443,5 $/t (-8.5% for the month), and soybean oil – by 4.5% to 1046 $/t (-15% for the month).
In the US, soybeans are planted on 49% of the area
According to the NASS USDA, due to favorable weather as of May 14, soybeans in the United States were planted in 49% of the area, which is 13% higher than the average 5-year average. Amid the delay in sowing of spring wheat, which is nearing the end of its optimal sowing period, farmers can plant soybeans on the remaining areas.
Prices are also pressured by the data of the Association NOPA on the reduction of soybean processing in the United States in April compared to March by 6.8% to 4.71 million tons and an increase in stocks of soybean oil from 840 to 888,5 thousand tons, while analysts had forecast them at 4.74 million tons and 830 thousand tons, respectively.
Ukraine
In Ukraine, high export demand for soybeans continues to reduce domestic stocks, so processors were forced to raise prices to 17000-18000 UAH/t (465-495 $/t) with delivery to the plant, while exporters offer 18500-18800 UAH/t or 475-485 $/t for deliveries to the ports of the Danube.
China
China is increasing the volume of processing amid the supply of cheap soybeans from Brazil, which may keep prices from falling further. According to CNGOIC (China National Grain and Oil Information Center), for the week of April 30-May 6, the processing volume increased by 6% to 1.98 mln tonnes, which is 44% higher than in the first week of April and 16% higher than in May 2022.
The soybean stocks in the country decreased by 4% to 3.4 mln tonnes during the week, which is 26% lower than last year. At the same time, the stocks of soybean processed products increased. Thus, during the week, the stocks of soybean meal increased by 25% to 300 thsd tonnes, and soybean oil – by 12% to 670 thsd tonnes, which is 46% and 17% down from the same period last year.
Source: Graintrade