The Almond Board of California has released the position report with May almond shipments of +195.67 million pounds compared to 257.55 million pounds last year for a 24.1 percent decrease. It had been widely expected that we would see a slowdown in shipments for May due to the limited sales in the prior two months.
| Million LBS | Percent | |
| Domestic | 54.94 | -14.4% |
| Exports | 140.73 | -27.3% |
| COUNTRY | 2023 Million LBS | 2022 Million LBS |
| India | 19.7 | 33.9 |
| Spain | 16.9 | 24.6 |
| China | 5.6 | 6.4 |
| U.A.E. | 2.6 | 14.6 |
Currency
US Dollar has strengthened against many currencies in the past month.
- 1 US Dollar = 23.32 Turkish Lira
- 1 US Dollar = 7.12 Chinese Yuan
- 1 Euro= 1.08 US Dollars
Year-to-Date Shipments
+2.191 billion pounds compared to last year’s 2.185 billion pounds for a 0.25 percent increase.
Crop Receipts
2.566 billion pounds compared to last year at 2.91 billion pounds for an -11.82 percent decrease.
Market
After the Subjective Almond Crop Estimate of 2.5 billion pounds for 2023, which was released in early May, we have witnessed prices slowly decreasing during the past three weeks to reach our current levels. As prices decreased we have seen a surge in demand and sales taking place, with Europe and USA leading the charge in new purchases for current and limited new crop sales.
Prices have reached the following levels:
- Stds 5% at 1.60-1.64 FAS for the current crop
- NPX 27/30 at 2.10-2.15, and Carmel Sup 25/27 at 1.83- 1.85 FAS
- Carmel Type SSR 23/25 at 1.75 FAS for the current crop.
New crop is at a premium of approximately 20-30 cents per lbs limiting the new crop sales. New sales for 2022 crop for May were 113.98 million lbs which is a 2.42% decrease from last year. Sales for the 2023 New Crop to date are 57.45 million lbs which is approximately 3% of the new crop, 2.5 billion pound crop. The Industry is now sold for current crop and carries in at 79.8 percent for the industry compared to 83.5 percent last year.
Unusual weather
The weather has been very unexpected. It has been cooler than normal. Bakersfield had over ½ inch of rain on Wednesday and some areas of Kern county has over 1 inches of rain. Highly unusual for June!
Overall this Spring has been very cool with intermittent rain showers each month. The cooler weather and ample water have allowed the nuts to size quite nicely, we do expect largest size kernels this upcoming season.
Objective crop estimate
The Objective Almond Crop Estimate will be on July 7, 2023. This estimate will be the actual evaluation of the orchards counting the number of nuts per trees and the sizes and weights of the kernels. Many buyers and sellers are looking forward to receiving this crop estimate to have a better idea on the upcoming crop.
New crop harvest
Based on the cooler Spring temperatures, most industry experts predict the harvest this season to be a minimum of 1 week late and in some areas up to 2 weeks later than normal.
Outlook
During the past two weeks we are seeing demand and sales picking up now that almonds prices are looking more attractive. The prices are not as low as they were back in December/January, however, they are looking very appealing and many buyers are taking advantage of these lower prices. June shipments are beginning to fill in.