In the July report, USDA analysts lowered the forecast of global wheat production in 2023/24 MY to 796.6 mln tonnes compared to June estimate (800.2 mln tonnes), which is higher than the result in the 2022/23 season (790.2 mln tonnes).
Experts made downward adjustments to the wheat harvest in the EU – to 138 (140.5; 134.3) mln tonnes, as well as in Canada – to 35 (37; 33.8) mln tonnes, Argentina – to 17.5 (19.5) mln tonnes, the UK – to 15.5 (15.7; 15.5) mln tonnes and Iran – to 14 (14.5; 13.2) mln tonnes. In turn, production prospects were raised for Pakistan – to 28 (26.8; 26.4) million tons and the United States – to 47.3 (45.3; 44.9) million tons.
The forecast for global grain exports in the new season was also lowered to 214.4 (215.4; 213.5) million tons, due to downward adjustments for Canada – to 26.5 (27.5; 25.5) million tons, Argentina – to 11 (12.5; 4.8) million tons. At the same time, the forecast for Russia was raised to 47.5 (46.5, 45.5) million tons, and for Australia – to 25 (24.5, 32.5) million tons.
Global wheat stock forecast is down than the result of 2022/2023
USDA experts in a July report forecasted the global wheat stocks in 2023/24 MY at 266.5 mln tonnes compared to 270.7 mln tonnes in June, which is also lower than the result of 2022/23 MY (269.3 mln tonnes). The forecast was lowered for China – to 137.1 (139.7, 139) million tons, the EU – to 14.6 (16.1, 17.6) million tons and the Russian Federation – to 12.4 (14.4, 16.6) million tons, but increased for the United States – to 16.1 (15.3, 15.8) million tons, Turkey – to 4.6 (3.9, 3.8) million tons and Egypt – to 4.4 (2.8, 4.7) million tons.
Source: Apkinform