China may import a record 100 million tons of soybeans in the period from October 2022 to September 2023, according to the forecast of analysts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). According to their estimates, in the last quarter of the current crop year (July-September) oilseed supplies to the Celestial Empire will remain at a high level, as China is buying the crop in South America at competitive prices, as well as gradually accepting shipments of imported raw materials at customs, which arrived several weeks and/or months earlier.
Overall, China imported nearly 84.5 million tons of soybeans in the last 10 months (October-July 2022/23 MY).
“Shipments from the US stopped in April as Asian buyers took advantage of a strong Brazilian soybean crop and attractive prices. However, other PRC oilseed suppliers increased shipments in this direction,” the report said.
In particular, the “soy dollar” program in Argentina contributed to the recovery of sales of the crop in the first half of the season. Canada and Russia also increased exports to China due to increased domestic soybean production and stable processing levels.
In addition, USDA forecasts that China will remain the world’s largest buyer of soybeans in MY 2023/24, purchasing 99 million tons of the oilseed in the new crop year.
“The PRC will likely continue to import large quantities from Brazil and possibly small amounts from the United States. New crop prices in the United States are rising, while Brazil’s production outlook remains optimistic,” the materials said.