A surge seems improbable this time in almond kernels, owing to the surplus yield in California and the considerable volume of existing stock in Indian markets. Moreover, the rupee shortage has dampened stockists’ spirits, setting the stage for a cautious outlook on future price hikes.
This season’s production peaks in August in the USA as the scenario unfolds with Californian exporters actively engaging in sales due to their abundant yield. However, the Indian markets present a contrasting picture, marred by a significant scarcity of subscriptions, leading to an overall stagnation in business. Experts suggest favourable weather conditions have led to a whopping 2350 million pounds of almond kernel production in California this year, compared to 2150 million pounds in the previous year.
While the price of almond kernels experienced a recent uplift from $1.40 to $1.62 per pound, persistent efforts from importers to offload their stocks have saturated Delhi, Amritsar, Indore, Jaipur, and even Agra, Kanpur, and Lucknow markets. Alarming quantities of independent kernels have been stashed away. However, actual sales need to align with this abundant stock. A glance into the near future predicts an impending disruption as global leaders gather for the G-20 summit, causing delays in container conditions and trade disturbances in the initial week of September. The market closure ensuing from this eventuality is expected to significantly impact businesses, warranting a cautious stance on long bullish trade.
While bookings have significantly declined compared to last year, shops are brimming with new and old almond kernel stocks. The current scenario, coupled with the value of high-priced goods and the resale of old stocks at varied prices, calls for a thoughtful approach to business decisions. As the prospect of Diwali and Dussehra demand approaches, select markets may witness growth. Nevertheless, the intricate web of factors, including market dynamics, global events, and fluctuating values, necessitates a cautious and strategic approach to the almond kernel trade. Thus, there’s a wait-and-watch scenario in the delicious almond market.
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