In small cardamom, an exciting dance unfolds as market dynamics oscillate between optimism and constraint.
Startling deficit in precipitation
The monsoon season, which seemed to have concluded, has returned with renewed vigor in many parts of India. Yet, there are pockets of dryness, as evidenced by reports of scant rainfall in the capital city of Delhi. After a drought-ridden August, Gujarat basks in the welcome embrace of rains. Meanwhile, South India also witnesses the quenching touch of the monsoon. However, Kerala, despite its history of copious rains, has faced a meager monsoon, with a startling 47 percent deficit in precipitation. This disparity may prove costly for the small cardamom crop, with predictions of losses ranging from 15 to 40 percent, depending on the region and state.
Anticipation of further price escalation
Interestingly, even in the face of relatively elevated prices, the flow of small cardamom into auctions is on the wane, hinting at producers’ anticipation of further price escalation. This optimism, however, coexists with a reality of sustained arrivals, bucking the trend of scarcity. Not long ago, the market reveled in an upswing of small cardamom prices. Nonetheless, the continuous influx of supply and robust purchasing capacity have conspired to keep the average auction price oscillating.
According to data furnished by the Spices Board, a total of 1,059.88 tonnes of small cardamom embarked on international voyages from our shores during the initial three months of the current financial year, 2023-24. In comparison, the previous year, we witnessed the export of 2,776.60 tonnes during the same period. This statistical reflection underscores a substantial plunge of 62 percent in the export of small cardamom by quantity.
What awaits the market?
As we peer into the horizon, the future of small cardamom appears poised within a realm of limitations. The dynamic dance between arrivals, prices, and demand continues. The rise in producer sales has set in motion a gradual uptick in small cardamom arrivals at major auctions. However, as supply swells and purchasing momentum falters, market sentiment is at a crossroads. It appears that the journey ahead for small cardamom might well be within a limited range.