The Export of Ukrainian Grain in 2023/24 Exceeded 22 Million Tons

Grain Markets on the Last Day of the Week

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European Grain Markets

  • A firm euro depressed wheat futures in Paris yesterday, but the close was above the 50-day average, and US grain markets rose broadly, so we can attribute the losses to so-called “technical maneuvering“.
  • A firm euro and weak wheat are obviously depressing the corn market as well, but it is so “low” that with prices dipping in Chicago, the path of least resistance is obviously up.
  • With heavy rainfall expected in western Europe and harvest ending in Canada, canola losses can hardly be explained by the euro alone, though oil is back above $90 in New York.

American Grain Markets

  • Grain markets in Chicago continue in an unequivocal bullish scenario, with wheat for the record also closing above the 50-day average there yesterday – something last seen in late July.
  • With similar appreciation in the corn and soybean markets, which like wheat, are no doubt “justifying” their firmness, with the ongoing drought in South America and Australia.

Black Sea Grain Markets

  • The Ukrainian Farmers Union estimates farmers’ losses from growing grains and oilseeds this year at $3.2 billion.
  • The Ukrainian Agrarian Council was a bit more specific, estimating that growing 1 ton of wheat cost an average of $146, while the average selling price was $102. The cost per tonne of maize was $149, with a selling price of $94.

 

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