In the 2023/24 season, the gross soybean harvest in two key producing countries in Latin America will be 208.5 million tons, according to the forecast of S&P Global Commodity Insights. Experts estimate Brazil’s oilseed crop will be at 158 million tons and Argentina’s at 50.5 million tons.
“Right now, 97% of soybean crops in Argentina are in normal to excellent condition. We hope that production will be 48-50 million tons and allow the oilseed industry to recover the average level of processing,” said analyst Javier Preciado Patino.
According to experts, the total volume of oilseeds processing in the regions under consideration next year will grow by more than 15% to 92.1 million tons. This will happen against the background of increased biofuel mandate in Brazil and restoration of normal weather conditions for growing beans in Argentina.
Meanwhile, demand for finished products will be robust, especially from leading buyers India and China.
“Indian mills were actively buying soybean oil in July-September as prices in the global market were attractive, but imports sagged in October due to higher stocks and very attractive sunflower oil prices,” said senior industry analyst Tushar Agarwal. – “But we also assume that overseas shipments from Brazil will be lower than domestic demand for biofuels.
Argentina is also set to increase sales, but this will not happen until after April 2024, the expert reasoned. “China has announced that it will replace soybean meal with some other ingredients. This may lead to a decrease in bean processing and an increase in demand for oils,” he added.