As a result of the prolonged drought in the states of Mato Grosso and Paraná, which are the main agricultural regions, StoneX experts sharply reduced the forecast for the soybean harvest in Brazil in 2023/24 from 161.9 to 152.8 million tons, which would be 3.2% less than the record 157.7 million tons collected in 2022/23. As a result of the reduction in production, the forecast for the export of soybeans from the country was reduced from 103 to 95 million tons.
Rains were irregular in most of the country’s fields, including in the main grain-producing state of Mato Grosso, where yields will be 14% lower than last year.
The forecast for total corn production in Brazil in FY 2023/24 has been lowered from 126 to 124 million tons, primarily due to reduced yields in the northern and northeastern regions. Compared to December estimates, the forecast for the first corn harvest was reduced by 2.4% to 25.8 million tons and the second – by 0.8% to 96.6 million tons.
March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 0.3% to $469.2/t yesterday (-3.4% for the week, -4.1% for the month), but they remain under pressure from lower demand for soybean oil from the US biofuels industry.
Source: Graintrade