In March-April the demand for barley in Ukraine is expected to decrease. This assumption was made by experts of the analytical centre of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, created within the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, during the weekly briefing, reports the press service of the UAC.
“Due to the fact that barley prices have increased significantly in comparison with other fodder crops, the world demand for this grain may be very low in March-April. The peak in barley prices seems to have passed. In February, barley prices will be in the range of 155-160 USD/t or 144-148 EURO/t, but in March-April the price is likely to fall as demand may be suspended,” the analysts believe.
They also noted that Ukraine exported 432,000 tonnes of barley in January, which is a record monthly figure for the current season.
“Barley was a relatively cheap grain that the EU and China were happy to buy. It is the low price that explains the high demand and the record export figure in January – 432 thousand tonnes. 150,000 tonnes have already been contracted for February. But the situation could change in the future,” analysts say.
Barley is now losing out to other crops in the feed group – wheat and maize. These crops have fallen in price while barley has remained unchanged.
On the FOB and CIF markets, barley is calculated at the price of corn and this is a negative point. For the Italian market, for example, barley is calculated at 210-212 USD/t or 194-196 EURO/t. Corn prices are at the same level. The usual spread between these feed crops should be 10-15 USD/t or 9-13 EURO/t, i.e. barley should be cheaper than corn, and now the prices have converged at the same level,” the experts explain.
The situation in China is similar – both barley and corn are priced at 240 USD/t 222 EURO/t. Under such conditions, China will opt for corn rather than barley.
“In the future, scenarios are possible where either the price of corn goes up or the price of barley goes down,” analysts say.