Center for Price Indexes Releases Revised Forecasts
The Center for Price Indexes, a subsidiary of Gazprombank, has recently published its updated quarterly consensus forecast on exports from the Russian Federation for key agricultural products in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY).
Upward Revision in Wheat Exports
Analysts’ outlook has turned more optimistic since November 2023, particularly regarding wheat exports. Projections for the current season have been significantly revised upward, from 50.4 million tonnes to 52.9 million tonnes. Similarly, estimates for wheat exports in the 2024/25 MY have been raised to 48.1 million tonnes, compared to 46.4 million tonnes in the previous forecast.
Surprising Trends in Sunflower Oil Production and Export
Despite an increase in sunflower harvest, analysts have surprisingly revised down projections for sunflower oil production and export in the current MY. Estimates have decreased from 7 million tonnes to 6.8 million tonnes for production and from 4.6 million tonnes to 4.3 million tonnes for exports. The divergence in opinions among analysts midway through the season indicates a lack of market clarity among oil and fat companies, especially regarding strategies amidst rising raw material supplies.
Lower Projections for Oilseed Types in the Upcoming Season
The consensus forecast for two out of three oilseed types for the upcoming season is lower than previous estimates. Sunflower seed harvest projections stand at 15.5 million tonnes, down from 15.6 million tonnes in the November forecast, while rapeseed is estimated at 4.2 million tonnes, previously forecasted at 4.3 million tonnes. Soybean production estimates remain unchanged at 5.9 million tonnes.
Stay tuned for further updates as the Russian agricultural export landscape continues to evolve in response to market dynamics and changing forecasts.
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