Hopes for increased barley exports from Ukraine at the end of the season may not come true.
World demand for barley remains quite low, especially against the background of forecasts of increased production in the new season. In addition, Australia and Argentina increased barley deliveries to the world market.
For the moment, China’s active purchase of Ukrainian barley in February and March led to an increase in purchase prices and an increase in exports. In March 2024, Ukraine exported 339,000 tons of barley. This was one of the highest monthly figures of this season. In total, 1.963 million tons of barley went for export in 2023/24. While last year 2.27 million tons were shipped by April 1. Nevertheless, analysts believe that in April-May, Ukraine barley export will reduce. They predict export of around 200-300 thousand tons due to increased demand from Türkiye and EU countries against the background of low prices.
Prices for feed barley with delivery to Black Sea ports fell to $145-150/t or UAH 6,100-6,200/t. While prices for feed wheat, which is being bought by a much larger number of traders , reached €158-160/t. Processors offer €118-130/t for barley with delivery to the factory, as they have sufficient stocks of raw materials.
According to UZA estimates, due to the low profitability of growing barley, the total production of barley in Ukraine in 2024 may decrease compared to the previous year from 5.8 to 4.6 million tons. Export will be also reduced from 2.5 to 2 million tons.