Oil prices experienced a slight decline recently, despite earlier speculative gains, following Iran’s shelling of Israel over the weekend. The absence of immediate retaliation prevented further escalation, leading to a slight decrease in prices.
Brent Futures
Brent June futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose by 0.8% to $90.45 per barrel on Friday but fell by 0.34% to $90.14 per barrel on Monday. This marks a weekly decrease of 0.5% but a monthly increase of 4.5%.
Palm and Soybean Oil Trends
- Palm and soybean oil quotes followed oil prices closely, especially after a report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board revealed more positive figures than anticipated.
- In March, Malaysia saw a significant increase in crude palm oil production by 10.57% to 1.39 million tons compared to February. Exports also surged by 28.61% to 1.32 million tons, resulting in a 10.68% decrease in stocks to a 10-month low of 1.71 million tons.
- June palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell by 1.86% to 4,204 ringgit per ton or $880 per ton, marking a 2.2% decrease for the week.
Soybean Oil Market
May futures for soybean oil in Chicago witnessed a significant decline of 5.2% for the week, reaching $1,002 per ton, reflecting a 7.2% decrease for the month. This decline is attributed to increased offers of cheap soybeans from South America, despite higher soybean processing rates in the USA.
According to the NOPA association, soybean processing in the United States hit a record 5.35 million tons in March, exceeding analysts’ expectations by 5.7%. Soybean oil sales also grew by 9.5% compared to February, almost matching levels seen in March 2023.
Sunflower Oil Prices
The average price of sunflower oil with delivery to buyers decreased by 0.8% to $873 per ton for the week. In Ukraine, prices fell by $5-10 per ton, reaching $800-805 per ton with delivery to ports in the Black Sea, $840-850 per ton with delivery to Bulgaria, and $880-890 per ton with delivery to Italy.
USDA’s Forecast
- In its April report, the USDA revised its forecast for global production of vegetable oils slightly upward to 223.17 million tons. The forecast for palm oil imports to India and China was lowered, along with exports from Indonesia.
- Despite the decrease in palm oil exports forecast, the USDA increased the forecast of sunflower oil exports from Ukraine by 0.15 to 5.9 million tons and from the Russian Federation by 0.1 to 4.4 million tons, driven by increased imports by Egypt.