Warning of Impending Rapeseed Shortage
The Association for the Promotion of Oilseeds and Cereals, established by the German Farmers’ Union (UFOP), has issued a stark warning about an approaching global rapeseed shortage.
Decline in Global Rapeseed Production
The International Grains Council (IGC) has projected that global rapeseed production will decrease by 2% in 2024/25, to 87.2 million tons. This decline is attributed to reduced planting areas and lower yields.
Australia’s Production Challenges
Australia, a leading canola producer, is expected to see its harvest fall to 5.4 million tons, which is 700,000 tons below previous estimates and a 4.5% decrease from 2023.
Ukraine’s Struggles
Ukraine also faces difficulties. Notably, production is anticipated to be 500,000 tons less than earlier predictions, resulting in a total of 4.9 million tons.
Western Europe’s Adverse Conditions
Western Europe has been impacted by adverse weather conditions, including excessive rain and pests, leading to a 5.1% drop in EU rapeseed production, now estimated at 18.7 million tons.
Price Increases and Farmer Recommendations
UFOP forecasts a rise in rapeseed prices and advises farmers to adjust their 2025 planting plans to accommodate crop rotation needs, suggesting an increase in the area dedicated to rapeseed cultivation.
Impact of Banning Palm Oil-Based Biofuels
The gradual phase-out of palm oil-based biofuels in Germany, France, and Sweden is expected to boost demand from the biofuel sector, influencing rapeseed planting areas and crop rotation strategies.
Record Global Biodiesel Production
Global biodiesel production is anticipated to reach a record 76.3 million tons in 2024. The IGC previously estimated that global biodiesel production, including hydro-processed vegetable oil (HVO), was 71.5 million tons last year, marking an 11% increase from 2022.
Surge in Rapeseed Prices
Previously, global rapeseed prices hit a 16-month high, exceeding 500 euros per ton, and continue to rise despite declining yields.