The price of big cardamom in India is projected to rise significantly due to lower production and limited stock availability. Speculative activity in Gwalior’s market has influenced prices, and experts suggest that traders hold onto their stocks to benefit from potential increases of USD 18,36–24,48 per kg in the coming months..
Reduced Production and Lower Stocks
Shreyansh Jain of NC Bhojraj and Company expects Nepal’s big cardamom crop to be much smaller this season due to adverse weather conditions. Current stocks are only 50% of last year’s levels, totaling around 75,000 bags, including both new and old stock. Nepal is projected to produce 40,000 bags and add 15,000 bags from existing inventory. This brings the total to 55,000 bags, which reflects a 25–30% shortfall from the usual seasonal supply. Experts recommend that traders hold onto their inventory for potential future profits.
Rising International Demand for Premium Quality
International demand for high-quality big cardamom is rising, as exporters seek top-tier products. This demand is expected to drive prices even higher. Speculative activity continues to keep prices volatile, but as speculators fulfill their deliveries, prices are likely to rise further. Nepal’s production challenges and delayed yields add to the shortage, with weather conditions playing a crucial role in determining the crop outcome.
Short Supplies in Key Markets
In addition to India, markets like Siliguri, Gangtok, and Bhutan are facing shortages, owing to a reduced yield last season. Current prices in Nepal are USD 12,45 per kg, while Indian prices have recently rebounded to USD 17,95–18,08 per kg after a brief dip. Speculative selling had driven prices down to USD 16,98–17,15 per kg in Gwalior.
Conclusion
As production declines, inventory remains limited, and international demand grows, experts predict a significant price increase for big cardamom in the near future. Experts predict a rise of up to USD 1,82 per kg, as supply struggles to meet demand. Traders should hold onto their stocks, as a price increase driven by scarcity seems likely in the coming months.
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