Wheat Futures Rebound on Stronger Demand and Weather Concerns
Euronext Wheat Recovers from Two-Month Low
After hitting its lowest level since early December on Monday, Euronext wheat futures rebounded sharply on Tuesday. The March 2025 contract gained €4.25 to €229/t, supported by stronger international demand and a weaker euro.
CBoT Wheat Futures Show Gains
At the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT), the March contract rose by +9.75 ct to 545.25 ct/bu, as concerns over winterkill damage in U.S. wheat regions supported the market. However, gains were limited by the stronger U.S. dollar.
Key Market Drivers
Improving International Demand for Wheat
- Jordan purchased 50,000 t of wheat, likely sourced from Bulgaria.
- Another tender for 120,000 t has been issued, with offers due by February 4.
- Tunisia is set to award contracts for 100,000 t of soft wheat and 100,000 t of durum wheat today.
- EU exporters see Morocco as an opportunity, though competition from Russia remains strong.
EU Wheat Exports Lag Behind Previous Year
- EU soft wheat exports since the July 2024/25 season start reached 12.18 million t by January 26.
- This is significantly lower than last year’s 19.35 million t.
- Top EU wheat exporters:
- Romania: 3.38 million t
- Lithuania: 1.78 million t
- Latvia: 1.57 million t
- Germany: 1.38 million t
- France: 1.35 million t
- Corn imports into the EU have increased to 11.41 million t (compared to 10.93 million t last year), reducing demand for feed wheat in Spain.
U.S. Wheat Prices Supported by Weather Risks
- Concerns over potential winterkill damage after last week’s cold snap continue to support the U.S. wheat market.
- Ongoing drought concerns in key growing areas are closely monitored.
- The stronger U.S. dollar limited gains, as it made U.S. wheat exports less competitive.
CBoT Wheat Prices – Latest Overview
| Contract | Last Price (US-Cent/bu) | Change (US-Cent) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 563.50 | +1.00 | +0.18% |
| May 2025 | 577.00 | +1.00 | +0.17% |
| July 2025 | 589.00 | +1.00 | +0.17% |
| September 2025 | 602.25 | +0.75 | +0.12% |
| December 2025 | 620.25 | +0.25 | +0.04% |
Outlook
- Wheat:
- International demand is picking up, providing price support.
- Weather-related risks in the U.S. remain a concern.
- EU wheat exports need to accelerate to compete with Russian and Argentine supplies.
- Exchange Rates:
- The weakening euro could boost EU exports, while a stronger U.S. dollar may limit U.S. competitiveness.
- Upcoming Factors to Watch:
- The Tunisia wheat tender results could set a new price benchmark.
- USDA weekly export sales report will indicate the strength of U.S. wheat demand.
- EU wheat shipment trends will show whether exports can catch up.
Conclusion:
The wheat market remains volatile, with weather risks, export demand, and currency movements shaping price action. The recent recovery in wheat futures could continue if international demand remains strong and weather concerns persist.
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