➡ Corn Near-Term Futures Rally on Delayed Planting – EU Imports from U.S. Rise Sharply
Corn prices continued to recover on Monday, supported by adverse weather delaying planting in the U.S. and strong European demand for American corn.
U.S. corn futures extended gains for a second session. Contracts for early delivery reached their highest level in nearly three weeks. The market remained largely unaffected by tariff-related headlines, as the focus shifted to weather and export dynamics. Euronext prices rose slightly, also supported by wheat and ongoing import concerns.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Delivery | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 469.00 | +4.50 |
| Jul 2025 | 475.00 | +4.25 |
| Dec 2025 | 450.75 | ±0.00 |
➡ Prices strengthened on short-term supply concerns and strong demand.
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Delivery | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | 213.00 | +0.25 |
| Aug 2025 | 214.75 | 0.00 |
| Nov 2025 | 209.75 | 0.00 |
➡ Slight gains in early deliveries, supported by firm spot prices and wheat markets.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 🌧 Planting Delays in the U.S.:
Persistent rainfall in the southern Corn Belt and southeastern U.S. is disrupting spring fieldwork.- Field progress is slower than expected
- The soil remains saturated in parts of the Ohio Valley and Mississippi Delta
- 🌎 EU Import Surge from the U.S.:
- EU imports (Jul 1–Apr 6): 16.21 million tons (+13% YoY)
- U.S. share: ↑ from 0.8% → 21.1%
- U.S. exports to EU: 3.42 million tons (prev. year: 114,000 tons)
- Ukraine remains top supplier (9.17 Mt), Brazil dropped sharply to 1.62 Mt
- 🚢 USDA Export Sales Update:
- Spain bought 240,000 tons of U.S. corn for 2024/25 delivery
- Demand from the EU remains robust despite trade friction
- 📊 WASDE Report Ahead (Thursday):
- No major adjustments expected for 2024/25
- First 2025/26 outlook expected in May
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Trend | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt | Wet, stormy | Fieldwork delays continue |
| 🇪🇺 Europe | Neutral to mild | Sowing conditions favorable |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | South remains dry | Pressure on first-crop yields |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | Change | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | +6.2 Mt | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | ±0.0 | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | −0.6 Mt | 11.4 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 65.0 (est.) | +6.0 Mt | 16.1 |
| 🌍 Global | ~1,222.4 | +5.8 Mt | 314.6 |
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 127.5 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 65.0 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 🔼 Bullish for early deliveries due to delayed U.S. planting and firm EU imports
- 📉 Tariff impacts muted – China is not a major U.S. corn buyer
- 🧭 Focus this week: WASDE report, EU tariff vote, and field conditions
Strategy:
Supportive near-term outlook – maintain long exposure in early U.S. and EU contracts. Watch for volatility around WASDE and weather headlines.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 10–12)
| Market | Outlook | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT | 🔼 Slightly bullish | Planting delays and strong EU demand |
| Euronext | 🔼 Steady to firm | Strengthened by import shifts and wheat |
| Dalian | 🔁 Stable | Domestic prices unchanged |
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