Corn Futures Rebound After Two Days of Losses – Weather and Dollar Drive Market

➡ Corn Futures Rebound After Two Days of Losses – Weather and Dollar Drive Market

After a short-lived pullback, U.S. corn futures rebounded on Wednesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and wet weather in key growing areas. Euronext contracts also posted modest gains.

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Following two sessions of selling pressure, corn prices in Chicago turned higher midweek. Rain in the Midwest raised concerns about planting progress, while the dollar’s softness encouraged fresh buying. Meanwhile, Euronext markets showed limited upward movement, with near-term contracts stabilising.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change
Jul 2025	491.75	+2.25
Sep 2025	459.00	+1.50
Dec 2025	466.75	+2.25

➡ July delivery reached 170 EUR/t equivalent – a two-week high.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change
Jun 2025	204.75	+0.25
Aug 2025	209.50	0.00
Nov 2025	206.25	0.00

➡ Slight increase in early contracts, sentiment remains cautious.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 🌧 U.S. Weather Risk:
  • Rain in major planting regions could delay corn seeding
  • Extended delays may lead to acreage switching to soybeans
• 💵 Weak U.S. Dollar:
  • Currency weakness continued to support the U.S. grain export appeal
• 🇦🇷 Argentina Harvest Update:
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange: 28% harvested
  • Yields exceeding expectations – output likely to surpass current forecast of 49 Mt
• 🇫🇷 FranceAgriMer Increases Corn Ending Stocks (2024/25):
  • Revised upward to 3.39 Mt from 3.08 Mt
  • Supply situation in France remains comfortable
• 🛢 EIA Ethanol Report (April 10):
  • Production: ↓ 9,000 bpd → 1.012 million bpd
  • Stocks: ↓ 220,000 bbl → 26.814 million bbl
  • Exports: ↓ 37,000 bpd → 137,000 bpd
  • Refinery input: ↑ 30,000 bpd → 902,000 bpd
• 📦 USDA Export Sales (due Thursday):
  • Expected:
    • 2024/25: 0.6–1.8 Mt
    • 2025/26: 0–300,000 t
  • Market awaits confirmation of demand resilience

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt	Rainy, unsettled	Planting delays, supportive prices
🇦🇷 Argentina	Mild, dry	Favourable for harvest progression
🇪🇺 France	Dry, stable	Fast planting, supply cushion

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🌍 Corn Fundamentals Snapshot

Indicator	Value	Trend
U.S. Ending Stocks (24/25)	1.47 billion bu	↓ vs. March
Global Production (24/25 est.)	1.215 billion tons	↑ vs. March
Global Ending Stocks (24/25)	287.65 million tons	↓ 710,000 t
Argentina Crop (est.)	48.5–49.0 million t	↑ upgraded
Brazil Crop (est. – Conab)	124.75 million t	↑ slight increase

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• 📈 Upside limited by South American harvest optimism
• 🌧 U.S. weather remains key short-term driver
• 📊 Watch the USDA sales report for confirmation of sustained demand

🧭 Strategy:

• Maintain long bias in July contracts, especially on weather headlines
• Consider profit-taking or tight stop-losses ahead of the USDA export data
• Monitor Argentina harvest closely – higher yields could cap rallies

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 18–20)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔼 Slightly bullish	Supported by weather, cautious upside
Euronext	🔁 Stable	Awaiting new catalysts
Dalian	🔁 Flat	Domestic sentiment unchanged

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