Corn Futures Hold Firm Despite Weak Commodity Sentiment – U.S. Planting Progress Supports Market

➡ Corn Futures Hold Firm Despite Weak Commodity Sentiment – U.S. Planting Progress Supports Market

Corn prices changed a little on Monday, as the market held up relatively well compared to wheat and soybeans. Wet weather and planting progress in the U.S. helped limit losses.

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U.S. corn contracts closed Monday with only minor changes. Despite broader commodity weakness, the corn market found support in wet U.S. weather forecasts and a softer dollar. In Europe, Paris contracts ended the week on mixed footing, with early delivery futures gaining slightly.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change
Jul 2025	490.00	−0.25
Sep 2025	456.75	−0.25
Dec 2025	464.50	±0.00

➡ Despite market pressure, nearby contracts remained steady.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change
Jun 2025	205.25	+0.50
Aug 2025	209.00	0.00
Nov 2025	206.25	0.00

➡ Slight gain in early delivery contract, market remains cautious.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 🌧 U.S. Weather Conditions:
  • Continued rainfall in the Midwest is delaying corn planting
  • May lead to acreage shifts toward soybeans if delays persist
• 📊 Crop Progress (as of April 20):
  • 12% of the corn area is planted
  • Ahead of the 5-year average (10%) and analyst expectations
  • Weekly progress: +8 percentage points
• 📦 USDA Export Inspections (week ending April 17):
  • 1.702 million tons shipped
  • −-7 % vs. previous week, +2.5% YoY
  • Largest weekly figure for this time of year since 2018
  • Top buyers: 🇲🇽 Mexico (490,398 t), 🇯🇵 Japan (437,602 t), 🇰🇷 South Korea (206,613 t)
  • Season total: 39.22 million tons (+29% YoY)
• 📈 CFTC Positioning (as of April 15):
  • Net-long increased by 70,997 contracts
  • New total: 124,573 contracts
  • Shows strong investor confidence post-WASDE

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 Midwest	Rain continues	Potential for delayed planting
🇦🇷 Argentina	Mostly dry	Favourable harvest weather
🇪🇺 France	Dry	Fast planting, increasing stock buffer

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🌍 Corn Market Snapshot

Indicator	Value	Comment
U.S. Ending Stocks (24/25)	1.47 billion bu	Lower than expected
Export Inspections (last week)	1.702 million t	Best for this week since 2018
Net CFTC Position	+124,573	Strongest since early 2023
Planting Progress (U.S.)	12%	Ahead of schedule

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• ⚖️ Stable outlook short term despite broader market pressure
• 📈 Planting progress supports fundamentals, especially if the weather worsens
• 💵 Weaker dollar keeps U.S. corn competitive globally

🧭 Strategy:

• Maintain long bias in July delivery contracts
• Monitor updated forecasts and USDA export sales on Thursday
• Watch for positioning shifts ahead of month-end

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 23–25)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔁 Sideways	Support from fundamentals, capped by sentiment
Euronext	🔼 Slightly firmer	Export flows and planting outlook are supportive
Dalian	🔁 Neutral	No change in the domestic supply-demand dynamic

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