Corn Market Falls Sharply – U.S. Planting Accelerates, Global Pressure Weighs on Prices

➡ Corn Market Falls Sharply – U.S. Planting Accelerates, Global Pressure Weighs on Prices

U.S. corn futures plunged on Tuesday as planting moved ahead faster than expected. Global commodity weakness and improved South American crop outlooks added to the bearish sentiment.

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Corn prices at the CBOT dropped sharply, with the July contract hitting a two-week low. Despite earlier rain, U.S. planting is progressing quickly, easing concerns over delays. Euronext contracts followed the downward trend, as improved weather and global economic concerns pressured markets.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change
Jul 2025	470.25	−13.00
Sep 2025	434.75	−11.00
Dec 2025	444.50	−11.00

➡ Broad-based losses across maturities, driven by planting optimism and market sentiment.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change
Jun 2025	200.25	−1.00
Aug 2025	204.75	−0.75
Nov 2025	202.50	−0.75

➡ Paris contracts continued to slide as planting progressed rapidly in France and Ukraine’s delays eased.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 🌱 U.S. Planting Progress Accelerates:
  • Despite recent rainfall, planting is ahead of the 5-year average
  • Conditions improving in key states: Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois
  • USDA data: 12% planted vs. 10% avg.
• 🛰 Commodity Weather Group Outlook:
  • Next 2 weeks: below-average rainfall
  • Ideal for planting → bearish for short-term prices
• 🇧🇷🇦🇷 South America Crop Revisions:
  • Analyst Michael Cordonnier raised forecasts:
    • Brazil: ↑ +3 Mt → 125 Mt
    • Argentina: ↑ +2 Mt → 48 Mt
• 📉 Macro Pressure:
  • Weak U.S. economic indicators
  • Lower crude oil, wheat, and soybean prices weighed on corn
• 🚢 USDA Export Flash Sales (April 30):
  • 120,000 t sold to 🇪🇸 Spain (2024/25 delivery)
  • First large daily corn sale since mid-April
• 🛢 E15 Fuel News:
  • U.S. administration authorises nationwide sale of E15 ethanol fuel
  • No market reaction – already priced in, demand effect uncertain

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 Midwest	Drier, warmer	Accelerated planting, bearish signal
🇧🇷 Brazil	Rain eased stress	Supports improved Safrinha outlook
🇦🇷 Argentina	Drying expected	Ideal for harvest continuation

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🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Updated)

Indicator	Value	Trend
U.S. Planting (April 28)	12% complete	↑ Above average
Brazil Crop Forecast (Cordonnier)	125 Mt	↑ +3 Mt
Argentina Crop Forecast	48 Mt	↑ +2 Mt
CBOT July Future	470.25 ct/bu	↓ Two-week low
USDA Flash Export	120,000 t to 🇪🇸	Mildly supportive

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• 🔻 Downtrend accelerated by better U.S. weather and global fundamentals
• ⚠️ Macro risk and fund activity could extend correction
• 🧭 Exports and new planting data critical in coming days

Strategy:

• Reduce long exposure short-term
• Watch for rebound if exports surprise or weather changes
• Re-enter cautiously if July stabilizes above technical support (≈468 ct)

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 1–3)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔽 Bearish bias	Planting progress & macro pressure dominate
Euronext	🔽 Weak tone	Global sentiment weighs on EU contracts
Dalian	🔁 Neutral	No major domestic catalyst currently

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