Global Coffee Market Faces Challenges: Insights into Production, Prices, and Trends for 2025/26
The global coffee market is currently navigating through a complex landscape marked by significant challenges and changes, particularly in key producing regions like India. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report highlights a forecasted decline in India’s coffee production for the 2025/26 cycle, with expected yields impacted by adverse weather conditions. This analysis delves into the current state of the coffee market, examining price trends, fundamental drivers, and future projections.
Market Overview: Current Prices & Trends
 Contract |
 Close |
Change |
% Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | 1.95 USD/lb | +0.05 | +2.63% |
Key Market Drivers
- Forecasted production in India for 2025/26 is set at 6 million 60-kg bags, a decrease due to adverse weather.
- Domestic consumption in India is on the rise, expected to reach 1.4 million bags, driven by demand for soluble coffee.
- Global supply pressures and tight stocks have pushed farmgate prices for arabica and robusta up by 64% and 24%, respectively.
Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
Recent weather patterns in India, including a dry spell followed by strong winds and excessive rains, are likely to impact coffee yields negatively. The forecast for the coming days suggests continued variability which could further challenge production.
Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
| Date |
USD/lb Range |
|---|---|
| Tomorrow | 1.93 – 1.97 |
| Next day | 1.92 – 1.98 |
| Following day | 1.91 – 1.99 |
Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
Buyers: Monitor price fluctuations closely and consider securing contracts during dips.
Sellers: Leverage periods of price increases to lock in favorable rates.- Traders: Keep an eye on weather forecasts and USDA reports to anticipate market movements.
