Corn Prices Extend Losses – Good U.S. Weather and Pre-WASDE Positioning Pressure Market

➡ Corn Prices Extend Losses – Good U.S. Weather and Pre-WASDE Positioning Pressure Market

U.S. corn futures closed lower again on Wednesday as favourable U.S. planting weather and a weak soybean and wheat complex added pressure. Traders also adjusted positions ahead of the upcoming WASDE report.

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Corn futures continued to slide as markets reacted to ideal U.S. planting weather and general softness across grain markets. Ethanol data came in bearish, and traders reduced exposure before the USDA’s first 2025/26 global supply estimates due Monday. Euronext futures mirrored the U.S. decline with early delivery contracts falling sharply.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change
Jul 2025	449.25	−6.25
Sep 2025	429.50	−3.25
Dec 2025	440.75	−2.25

➡ July contract continues downward toward key support, following soy and wheat.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change
Jun 2025	192.50	−2.75
Aug 2025	197.50	−2.50
Nov 2025	197.50	−2.25

➡ Paris futures extended losses as international pressure weighed on sentiment.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 🌱 U.S. Weather & Planting Optimism:
  • Forecasts show continued dryness with brief showers
  • Ideal for planting progress → bearish price signal
• 📉 Weakness in Related Markets:
  • Soybeans, wheat, and crude oil all fell → risk-off sentiment spread to corn
• 🧾 WASDE Positioning:
  • Monday’s USDA WASDE will include the first full 2025/26 outlook
  • Traders are taking a defensive stance ahead of potential bearish projections
• 🛢 EIA Ethanol Report (Week ending May 3):
  • Production: ↓ 20,000 bpd → 1.02 million bpd
  • Stocks: ↓ 198,000 bbl → 25.191 million bbl
  • Refinery input: ↓ 22,000 bpd → 886,000 bpd
  • Exports: ↓ 12,000 bpd → 129,000 bpd
• 📦 USDA Weekly Export Sales (estimates):
  • Old crop: 0.7–1.4 million tons
  • New crop: 0–300,000 tons
  • Report release: Thursday morning

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 Midwest	Mostly dry, mild	Supports fast planting, bearish
🇧🇷 Brazil	Favorable	No major stress, harvest outlook firm
🇪🇺 Europe	Stable, mixed	Weather risk is limited in planting areas

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🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Updated)

Indicator	Value	Comment
U.S. Ethanol Production	1.02 million bpd	↓ bearish signal
U.S. Corn Exports (expected)	0.7–1.4 million t	Weekly data due Thursday
WASDE Report	May 13 (Monday)	First 2025/26 global outlook
Jul CBOT Corn	449.25 ct/bu	4-day loss streak

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• 🔻 Short-term pressure remains until WASDE confirms the global outlook
• ⚠️ Technicals remain weak, watch for breakdown below 448 ct support
• 📊 Export data could provide short-term relief if strong

Strategy:

• Avoid long entries until WASDE and export clarity emerge
• Monitor crude oil and wheat for spillover risk
• Consider a long entry if Friday stabilises above the technical support zones

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 9–11)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔽 Bearish bias	Traders cautious ahead of WASDE
Euronext	🔽 Weak tone	International pressure continues
Dalian	🔁 Stable	Domestic market balanced