📈 Surging Demand and Shrinking Supplies Propel Barley Prices Higher
The barley market is currently experiencing a significant uptrend, primarily driven by a combination of reduced production and robust demand from food manufacturing industries. Notably, the per-hectare productivity has seen a decline of 7%, prompting expectations of further price hikes. This trend is making barley trade increasingly lucrative this season.
Last month witnessed substantial purchases by food companies directly from the raw mandis, which pushed prices up by $0.59 to $0.88 per quintal. Adverse weather conditions earlier in the year further exacerbated the situation, impacting the crop negatively. Despite the arrival of the new crop in key producing states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, the slowdown in mandi arrivals has eased supply pressures somewhat.
With sowing reduced by 15-16% in favor of wheat and early temperature rises affecting yields, the estimated production for this season is down to 1.9 million metric tons from last year’s 2.25 million. Current prices in Delhi are hovering around $27.21-$27.43 per quintal, with no significant downside risk perceived, making this an optimal time for investment in the barley market.
📊 Market Overview
| Region | Price per Quintal | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Delhi | $27.21-$27.43 | Stable |
| Rajasthan | $26.29-$26.88 | Rising |
📉 Key Market Drivers
- Reduced production due to lower sowing and adverse weather conditions.
- Increased procurement by food manufacturing industries.
- Declining warehouse stocks signaling a potential price rally.
⛅ Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
Current forecasts indicate mild weather in the key barley producing states of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, which may not significantly impact the already reduced yields.
🔮 Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
| Date | Expected Price Range |
|---|---|
| Next 3 Days | $27.00-$28.00 per quintal |
📌 Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
- 🛒 Buyers: Secure supplies now before prices potentially increase further.
- 🏭 Sellers: Capitalize on current high prices and consider strategic stock releases.
- 📊 Traders: Monitor supply dynamics closely and adjust positions accordingly.
