The garlic market is currently characterized by stability, with both demand and prices showing little volatility. Despite last year’s price surge, which spurred increased sowing in major producing regions like Rajasthan, this season’s harvest is facing quality challenges. Unfavorable weather conditions have resulted in a shortage of large-sized bulbs, and most of the garlic available is of smaller size. Daily arrivals remain steady, with Rajasthan producing about 25,000 kg per day and Madhya Pradesh generating significant revenue, though this is expected to decrease as the season progresses. The intense summer heat has dampened demand across food items, including garlic, and spoilage concerns are rising as temperatures climb. Export activity remains subdued, and stockists are largely inactive, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. Prices for factory-quality garlic range from Rs 2,000–2,500, while premium grades fetch over Rs 10,000. Market participants should expect stable prices in the near term, with only minor fluctuations likely. The arrival of aromatic garlic is anticipated soon, which may influence local dynamics. Overall, the market outlook remains steady, but quality and weather will be key factors to monitor.
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Garlic
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FOB 6.60 €/kg
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Garlic
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FOB 0.94 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Type | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garlic | India | Powder (Organic) | New Delhi | FOB | USD 6.60/kg | 0% | Stable |
| Garlic | Egypt | Fresh | Cairo | FOB | USD 0.94/kg | 0% | Stable |
| Garlic (Factory Quality) | India | Fresh | Rajasthan | Local | INR 2,000–2,500/100kg | 0% | Stable |
| Garlic (Premium Quality) | India | Fresh | Rajasthan | Local | INR 10,000+/100kg | 0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Production: Rajasthan is producing 25,000 kg of garlic daily; Madhya Pradesh’s daily arrivals are high but expected to decrease.
- Crop Size: Sowing area increased 1.5x in Rajasthan, but overall output matches last year due to harvest issues.
- Quality: Shortage of large-sized bulbs (≥40mm); most arrivals are smaller size. Quality issues also reported in Madhya Pradesh.
- Demand: Currently low due to intense heat and reduced food consumption. Export demand is absent.
- Stockists: Inactive, reflecting cautious sentiment after last year’s price spike and subsequent correction.
📊 Fundamentals
- Weather: Unfavorable weather has impacted crop size and quality. Rising temperatures are increasing spoilage risks.
- Market Activity: No major boom or recession; arrivals and prices stable. No significant export activity.
- Speculative Positioning: Low, as stockists are not active and speculative buying is limited.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Rajasthan & Madhya Pradesh: Continued intense heat expected over the next week, raising concerns about spoilage and quality degradation. No immediate rainfall relief forecasted.
- Impact: High temperatures may accelerate spoilage, reduce market arrivals, and further limit availability of large-sized bulbs.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | Production (2024 est., 000 MT) | Stocks (000 MT) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | ~22,000 | High | World’s largest producer, stable supply |
| India | ~1,500 | Moderate | Quality and size issues in 2024 crop |
| Egypt | ~350 | Moderate | Fresh garlic, stable exports |
| Bangladesh | ~400 | Low | Mostly domestic consumption |
| EU | ~200 | Low | Import-dependent, stable demand |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect stable prices in the short term, with only minor fluctuations.
- Monitor weather developments closely; further heat could accelerate spoilage and reduce supply.
- Quality garlic (large bulbs) will command a premium as supply is tight.
- Export opportunities remain limited; focus on domestic market dynamics.
- Stockists should remain cautious until clearer price direction emerges post-monsoon or if demand picks up.
- Buyers may secure contracts at current prices given low volatility and potential for supply tightening if spoilage worsens.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Product | Current Price | Forecast Range (3 Days) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | Garlic Powder (Organic) | USD 6.60/kg | USD 6.55–6.70/kg | Stable |
| Cairo (FOB) | Fresh Garlic | USD 0.94/kg | USD 0.93–0.96/kg | Stable |
| Rajasthan (Local) | Factory Quality Fresh Garlic | INR 2,000–2,500/100kg | INR 2,000–2,600/100kg | Stable |
| Rajasthan (Local) | Premium Quality Fresh Garlic | INR 10,000+/100kg | INR 10,000–10,200/100kg | Stable |