Turkish Raisin Market: Residue Rules Tighten, Prices Hold Firm as Producers Receive Pre-Eid Support

Turkish Raisin Market: Residue Rules Tighten, Prices Hold Firm as Producers Receive Pre-Eid Support

The Turkish raisin market stands at a pivotal moment as both regulatory and financial developments converge to shape the outlook for 2025. Producers in Manisa, the heart of Türkiye’s grape and raisin sector, have welcomed a significant announcement from the TARİŞ Grape Union: a 30,000 TL holiday advance will be distributed to loyal cooperative members ahead of Eid al-Adha, providing much-needed liquidity.

This move is expected to ease short-term financial pressures and support continued production. However, the market faces heightened scrutiny over pesticide residues, with authorities and exporters warning that non-compliance with residue-free standards could jeopardise Türkiye’s dominant export position. Recent meetings have underscored the risk of losing key international markets if residue issues persist, prompting investments in laboratory testing and stricter enforcement.

On the pricing front, Turkish sultana types remain stable to firm, with incremental gains reflecting robust demand and limited supply growth. Meanwhile, weather conditions in major Turkish growing regions are being closely monitored, as seasonal forecasts suggest generally favourable conditions but with localised risks that could affect yield and quality. As global buyers watch for both quality assurance and price stability, the Turkish raisin sector’s ability to adapt to new standards and maintain supply will be critical for the upcoming marketing year.

📈 Raisin Market Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU	TR	Malatya	CIF	2.40	2.40	0.00%	Stable
Sultanas, type 9, grade A	TR	Malatya	FOB	3.40	3.35	+1.5%	Firm
Sultanas, type 8, grade A	TR	Malatya	FOB	3.35	3.22	+4.0%	Firm
Sultanas, type 10, grade A	TR	Malatya	FOB	3.90	3.82	+2.1%	Firm
Sultanas, type 9, grade A, organic	TR	Malatya	FOB	4.00	4.00	0.00%	Stable
Golden, grade AA	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.93	1.93	0.00%	Stable
Brown, grade AA	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.47	1.47	0.00%	Stable
Black, grade AA	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.42	1.42	0.00%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Advance Payments: TARİŞ’s 30,000 TL pre-Eid advance is expected to support Turkish producer liquidity and incentivize continued deliveries to cooperatives.
• Residue Concerns: Export markets have tightened residue regulations, and Turkish authorities are enforcing strict bans on prohibited substances. Non-compliance risks loss of access to key export markets.
• Export Market Stability: Türkiye remains a leading global raisin exporter, but faces competition from Iran, India, and the US. Market share is at risk if residue issues persist.
• Speculative Activity: No significant speculative build-up is reported; market moves are fundamentally driven by supply, demand, and regulatory developments.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. (est., 000 MT)	2024/25 Exports (est., 000 MT)	2024/25 Stocks (est., 000 MT)	Notes
Türkiye	280	220	40	Residue rules, strong EU demand
Iran	160	130	20	Competitive pricing, sanctions risk
USA	200	110	60	Stable, quality focus
India	110	25	10	Growing domestic use

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Regions

• Manisa, Türkiye: Current weather patterns are favorable, with mild temperatures and adequate rainfall supporting vine health. No severe frost or drought reported. Watch for localized hail or heavy rain in June that could affect flowering and fruit set.
• California, USA: Normal spring weather, but water allocations remain a concern for some growers.
• Iran & India: Dry, warm conditions persist—generally beneficial for drying but with some risk of heat stress if temperatures spike.

📌 Market Drivers & Sector Insights

• Turkish authorities are investing in new testing labs and enforcing residue-free policies to protect exports.
• Advance payments to producers may boost short-term supply, but stricter residue rules could reduce available export volumes if compliance is not met.
• Exporters and officials warn that non-compliance will affect the entire Turkish raisin sector, not just individual producers.
• Stable to firm prices reflect robust demand and cautious supply growth.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Producers: Strictly follow residue-free production protocols; non-compliance could result in product destruction and loss of market access.
• For Exporters: Secure supplies from compliant producers and monitor regulatory changes in destination markets.
• For Buyers: Consider forward contracts if residue compliance is assured; Turkish supply remains reliable but with new compliance risks.
• For Investors: Monitor policy and weather developments; price risk leans to the upside if compliance reduces exportable surplus.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Type	Origin	Current Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Sultanas, type 9, grade A	TR	3.40	3.40 – 3.45	Firm
Sultanas, type 8, grade A	TR	3.35	3.35 – 3.38	Stable/Firm
Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU	TR	2.40	2.40	Stable