Ethiopia Coffee Annual Report Summary – 2025/26 Outlook
Ethiopia is set to reach a new record in coffee production, forecast at 11.56 million 60-kg bags (≈694,000 MT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. This reflects a 9% increase over the previous year, driven by a combination of favourable weather, improved varieties, and intensified productivity campaigns.
📊 Production Overview
| Marketing Year | Area Harvested (ha) | Production (Million 60-kg bags) | Yield (MT/ha) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 (Est.) | 730,000 | 9.13 | 0.75 |
| 2024/25 (Est.) | 760,000 | 10.63 | 0.84 |
| 2025/26 (Fcast.) | 790,000 | 11.56 | 0.88 |
📈 Key drivers:
- Stumping of old trees and replanting with improved seedlings.
- Expansion of improved nurseries and agronomic support.
- Farmers are switching from khat/eucalyptus to coffee in response to higher prices.
- Policy reforms supporting direct exports by farmers with ≥2 ha.
🌍 Regional Contribution
- Oromia: 59% of the national coffee output
- Sidama & South-West Ethiopia: 13% each
- South Ethiopia: 8%
- Central & Others: 7% combined
📌 Growing regions are located between 1,500 and 2,200 meters, with ideal soil and rainfall conditions.
☕ Domestic Consumption & Export Forecast
| Marketing Year | Domestic (M Bags) | Exports (M Bags) | Ending Stocks (M Bags) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 (Est.) | 3.50 | 5.63 | 50,000 |
| 2024/25 (Est.) | 3.60 | 7.00 | 80,000 |
| 2025/26 (Fcast.) | 3.70 | 7.80 | 140,000 |
✅ Ethiopia maintains one of the world’s highest domestic consumption rates (~2.3 kg/capita).
📦 Exports forecast to grow 11.4% YoY in 2025/26.
🌐 Export Structure & Trends
- Green beans = 99.5% of total exports
- Roasted coffee exports tripled in 2023/24 to 27,000 bags
- Top export destinations:
- Saudi Arabia (18.4%), Germany (17%), Belgium (10%)
- U.S., South Korea, Japan, China, UAE, Italy, Jordan
📦 2023/24 coffee export value reached $1.7 billion, with total volume at 5.63 million bags, a 44% YoY growth.
💰 Price Trends
| Period | Ethiopia Green Bean Price | NY Arabica Futures (ICE) |
|---|---|---|
| May–Nov 2024 | 270–280 US¢/lb | ~216 US¢/lb |
| Apr 2025 | 423 US¢/lb (Ethiopia) | 400.75 US¢/lb (ICE) |
📈 Prices surged in Q1 2025 due to global supply tightening in Brazil & Vietnam, pushing Arabica futures to 50-year highs.
📋 Policy Highlights
- Minimum Export Price Reform: Now updated weekly, indexed to NY “C” prices + FX.
- Direct Export Rights: Farmers with ≥2 ha can bypass ECX and export directly.
- Vertical Integration: Launched in 2021 to streamline the supply chain.
- New Export Capital Requirements:
- Individuals: 10 million birr
- Companies: 15 million birr
- Foreign Investment Rule (Directive No. 1001/2024):
- $10M export history or $12.5M new investment required to enter the Ethiopian coffee export sector.
🔮 Outlook & Strategic Implications
- Ethiopia aims to become the world’s second-largest exporter by 2033, targeting:
- $4B in export value
- 1.26M MT production
- Creation of 3M jobs under its Comprehensive Coffee Strategy 2019–2033.
✅ Strong near-term export potential
⚠️ Long-term risks: climate variability, stinkbug infestation, quality control, global market dependency
📢 Source: [USDA Ethiopia Coffee Annual – June 2025]
For full report: FAS GAIN – ET2025-0014 (searchable via USDA GAIN portal)
