Spain Grain Market Update – 2025/26
Bumper Crop Forecast to Cut Imports by 2 MMT
🧾 Summary
Thanks to abundant spring rainfall, favourable winter conditions, and well-filled reservoirs, Spain is set for a total grain production of over 24.1 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2025/26. This is expected to reduce grain imports to 14 MMT, compared to over 16 MMT in MY 2024/25.
🌾 Grain Production Outlook
| Crop | Estimated Production (MMT) – FAS Madrid (June 2025) |
|---|---|
| Wheat | 8.5 |
| Barley | 9.5 |
| Corn | 3.6 |
| Oats | 1.3 |
| Rye | 0.3 |
| Triticale | 0.9 |
| Total | 24.1 (all grains combined) |
- Corn area expected at ~320,000 ha – supported by ample irrigation water.
- Grain yields in regions like Andalucía, Aragon, and Castile and León exceed historical NDVI and VHI levels (see pages 5–6).
- However, heatwaves in late May negatively impacted yields in Castile-La Mancha.
📈 Area Trends & Crop Conditions
- Grain area increased due to a better price outlook and lower input costs.
- Mild winter temperatures and well-distributed rainfall promoted germination and strong vegetative growth.
- Late May heatwaves caused stress during grain fill in some areas (especially wheat).
- Reservoir levels are at 76.8% of capacity nationally – see Figure 3 on page 4.
- Figure 6 on page 5 shows exceptional NDVI across all major regions, with Aragon and Castile-León above long-term records.
🌍 Trade & Import Needs
- Grain import requirement forecast for MY 2025/26: 14 MMT, down from 16+ MMT in MY 2024/25.
- Stable livestock demand supports steady feed grain usage.
- Higher domestic output will ease pressure on ports and logistics, particularly in feed-intensive regions like Catalonia and Aragon.
🔭 Regional Highlights
- Andalucía: Early harvest underway; record NDVI; good yield, lower protein content.
- Aragon: Strong rebound from poor 2024/25; high NDVI.
- Castile-La Mancha: Early promise cut short by May heat; wheat most affected.
- Castile and León: Largest grain region; later-maturing crop still has upside potential with sufficient moisture and irrigation access.
📦 Outlook & Strategy
- Spain’s MY 2025/26 crop is shaping up to be well above average.
- A 2 MMT reduction in imports is expected, mainly impacting corn, soft wheat, and barley imports.
- Industry should monitor:
- Late-season temperature extremes
- Grain protein levels (lower in some regions)
- Irrigated corn yield realisation
Source: USDA